000 AXNT20 KNHC 010413 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 04N29W and then from 04N32W to 02N51W. A surface trough interrupts the ITCZ along 30W, from 02N to 07N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 08N and between 20W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to 27N88W and a surface trough continues southwestward to the SW Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. No significant convection is associated to these features. The rest of the Gulf is under a weak high pressure regime and fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to locally moderate winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico. Seas are 2-4 ft north of 25N and 1-2 ft south of 25N. For the forecast, a cold front has stalled from Apalachicola, Florida, to 27N89W, with a surface trough extending SW into the SW Gulf of Mexico. These features will dissipate Sun, as will associated convection in the NE Gulf. High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate winds through Sun. Fresh to strong SE to S flow will return to the Gulf late Mon through Tue, ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Tue. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 20 nm of the U.S. coastline, this weekend through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low-level convergence is generating a few showers off the central coast of Nicaragua, while fairly tranquil weather conditions are prevalent in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge to the north of the islands support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. The strongest winds are found off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted in the eastern Caribbean and Bay of Campeche. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft are evident in the remainder of the NW Caribbean. The light winds and abundant moisture across the northern Gulf coast remain favorable for the development of dense marine fog during the overnight hours. Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until the late morning hours for the waters from central Texas to the Big Bend area of Florida. The dense fog is likely to reduce the visibility to below 1 nm, creating hazardous marine conditions. For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central Caribbean through early next week, with moderate to fresh east winds in the eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Some increase in winds is likely by Wed over the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the tropical N Atlantic waters, and fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Easterly swell will continue to gradually subside in the tropical Atlantic tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive high pressure system north of the area dominates the tropical Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N24W to 25N40W, where it transitions into a stationary front that is draped westward to 26N60W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of the stationary front to 28N and between 53W and 57W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly winds west of 25W. Seas in the central and western Atlantic are 6-12 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N30W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 26N55W to 26N58W. The front will dissipate tonight. A cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts early Sun. Fresh SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 30N east of northern Florida tonight. Trade winds are expected to increase during the middle of next week south of 25N and east of 75W. During that time, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ DELGADO