000 AXNT20 KNHC 010117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0105 UTC Sun Jan 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 07N12W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 21W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle Sw to near 25N91W. High pressure is centered over the NW Gulf. A surface trough prevails across the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are found SE of the front, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range north of 25N with seas of 2-4 ft south of 25N. For the forecast, the front will move E across the northern Gulf, exiting the area late tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of the front will be confined to the eastern Gulf through this evening. High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate winds for the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S flow will return to the Gulf late Sun night through Tue, ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Tue. Patchy dense marine fog is possible at times, especially within 20 nm of the U.S. coastline from Florida through Texas, this weekend through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central Caribbean this weekend, with moderate to fresh east winds in the eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Similar conditions will prevail early next week, with some increase in winds possible by mid-week over the eastern and central Caribbean, as well as the tropical N Atlantic waters. During that time, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Easterly swell will continue to gradually subside in the tropical Atlantic through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N26W to 27N38W, then becomes stationary to near 26N57W. Otherwise, high pressure prevails across much of the Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail across the Atlantic discussion waters. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over much of the waters north of 20N, except N of 28N between 25W and 45W, where northerly swell is bringing seas of 8-10 ft across those waters. South of 20N, seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, A cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts late tonight or early Sun. Fresh SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 30N east of northern Florida tonight. E swell east of 67W and south of 24N will continue to gradually subside through tonight. Trade winds are expected to increase during the middle of next week south of 25N and east of 75W. During that time, fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ AL ZCZC WRKTWDAT ALL TTAA00 KWRK 171658 Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES Tropical Depression Joyce is centered near 34.0N 28.4W at 17/1500 UTC or 250 nm SSW of the Azores moving ESE at 7 kt, and this forward speed is expected to continue while turning toward the southeast today, south on Tuesday, and southwest on Wednesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Due to southwesterly wind shear, there is only an area of moderate convection in the northeast quadrant. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Joyce is expected to become a remnant low tonight or Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending along 45W from 03N-18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted where the tropical wave intersects the ITCZ, mainly from 07N-09N within 180 nm west of the axis. Scattered showers are noted from 10N-14N within 150 nm of the axis on both sides. The wave will move into the waters east of the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday and move across the islands early on Wednesday. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Lesser Antilles in association with the wave passage. The wave marks the leading edge of quite an extensive area of Saharan Air for this time during the season. RGB Geocolor shows African dust extending from 10N-24N east of the wave axis to the coast of Africa. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from well inland Africa southwestward to the coastline of Senegal near 13N17W and continues to 09N20W. The ITCZ extends from 09N20W to 06N28W to just east of the tropical wave along 45W near 08N. It resumes at 08N48W to 08N59W. Aside from the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave along 45W, isolated moderate convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 24W-35W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 38W-45W. Scattered weak isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ from 50W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface high of 1014 mb is located over the western Gulf. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is seen west of 87W, and light to moderate south to southwest flow is east of 87W. Little change in surface Gulf winds is expected through the middle part of this week. The trough over the northeast Gulf extending southward from T.D. Florence is weakening and now only producing isolated showers and storms. Aloft, broad upper low covers the western half of the Gulf, supporting isolated showers and storms along the Mexican coast between Tampico and Tuxpan. The remnants of tropical cyclone Isaac, currently near Jamaica, will move west across Yucatan Channel on Wed and across the southwest Gulf waters on Thu. This could produce a slight increase in winds and seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak area of low pressure, associated with he remnants of Isaac, is located just south of Jamaica. Showers and thunderstorms are currently limited, and any development should be slow to occur during the next day or so. By Wednesday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for re-development to occur when the system moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives the system a low chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours. Gentle trades are west of the Isaac remnants, while gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. An upper level trough north of Hispaniola is also enhancing convective activity over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The tropical wave currently along 45W is expected to enter the Caribbean Sea on Wed, accompanied by fresh trades and building seas. For more details, see the Tropical Waves section. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Depression Joyce. A broad deep layer trough extends SW to NE across the central Atlantic from a large upper-level low, centered near 27N65W. The upper-level low will generally move northward over the next couple of days. At the surface, a 1013 mb low is near 25N66W with a trough extending southwest to near Hispaniola and northeast to 29N59W. The system is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the trough axis between 20N-30W and west of 50W. Well east of the trough, a 1024 mb high is centered near 28N39W. The trough and low are forecast to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours as the ridge builds westward. A tropical wave is located along 45W. For more details, see the Tropical Waves section above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre/Formosa !--not sent--!