000 AXNT20 KNHC 311025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast around the border of Liberia and Sierra Leone near 07N11W and continues W to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 04N30W to 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery south of 08N and east of 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb center of low pressure has formed along the Mississippi coast, with a trailing cold front SW across the Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. A pre-frontal trough is noted from the Florida Big Bend to 26N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 25N and east of the cold front. Mariners may encounter heavy downpours reducing the visibility below 2 miles, frequent lightning, and gusty winds with the strongest thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring in the NE Gulf ahead of the front, with mainly gentle to moderate SE winds in the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds in the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the north-central and NE Gulf, and mainly 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Warm, moist area over the relatively cool shelf waters along the northern Gulf coast is leading to marine fog across portions of the waters. Within 60 nm of the U.S. coast from the Florida- Alabama border west, areas of dense fog are at times restricting visibility to 1 nm or less, leading to hazardous boating conditions. The weather pattern conducive to additional marine fog development may prevail through the weekend. For the forecast, fresh S winds in the NE Gulf will diminish today as a weak cold front that currently extends from the mouth of the Mississippi River to near Tampico, Mexico, slides E across the northern Gulf, exiting the area tonight. Thunderstorms along the front may be strong today in the NE Gulf, with frequent lightning and locally higher winds and waves. High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front, leading to gentle to moderate winds for the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the Gulf Sun night through Tue, ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Tue. Patchy dense fog is possible at times offshore U.S. and far northern Mexico waters this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... With high pressure centered NE of Bermuda dominating weather for the basin, no significant convection is present, and moderate to fresh trades prevail. Gentle winds are noted in the lee of Cuba and strong winds are within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Seas in the central and SW basin are 6 to 9 ft, with 5 to 7 ft seas in the east and 2 to 5 ft seas in the NW, lowest in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, fresh trades will prevail in the central Caribbean this weekend, with moderate to fresh east winds in the eastern basin and mainly moderate winds in the western Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse nightly within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Similar conditions will prevail early next week, with some increase in winds possible by mid-week. Easterly swell will continue to gradually subside in the tropical Atlantic today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge remains the dominant feature across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak cold front continues to move gradually eastward, extending from 31N28W to 26N50W, transitioning into a stationary front that stretches to 28N64W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present north of the frontal boundary. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in these waters. A surface trough is noted along the N Florida coast. Moderate E to SE winds are found north of 28N and betwen 64W and 77W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh E winds are occurringbetween the SE Bahamas and northern Hispaniola. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support a large area of moderate to locally fresh easterly winds, mainly south of 25N and between the SE Bahamas and 30W. NE-E swell sustain seas of 6-8 ft. Lastly, a weakening surface trough is along 23W from 19N to 29N, In the vicinity of the trough, and for the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate by tonight. A weak cold front will slide off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts late tonight or early Sun. A cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts Sat night or early Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of 67W and south of 24N will continue to gradually subside today. Fresh to strong winds may pulse nightly during the middle of next week N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ KONARIK