000 AXNT20 KNHC 310401 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 07N16W. The ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 04N29W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite imagery south of 07N and between 15W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to move across the NW Gulf of Mexico, extending from the southern coast of Louisiana to Tamaulipas near 24N98W. A pre-frontal trough stretches from the Florida panhandle to 25N93W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 25N and east of the cold front. Mariners can expect heavy downpours reducing the visibility below 3 miles, frequent lightning and gusty winds with the strongest storms. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure system that is located to the northeast of Bermuda and extends southwestward into the basin. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail to the east of 90W, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring north of 27N. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent west of 90W. Light winds and abundant moisture is likely to result in the formation of marine fog across parts of the Gulf coast. Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 31/1200 UTC for the waters within 60 nm of southern Texas and until 31/1500 UTC for the waters from south-central Louisiana to the Alabama and Florida border. Hazardous boating conditions are expected due to reduced visibility to 1 nm or less. For the forecast, fresh to strong S winds prevail over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, ahead of a weak cold front that currently extends from Lafayette, Louisiana, to Tampico, Mexico. The cold front will move E across the northern Gulf through Sat night. A line of strong thunderstorms, currently over the north- central Gulf, will continue moving slowly eastward through tonight. High pressure will move across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front this weekend, leading to gentle to moderate winds. Fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the Gulf Sun night into Tue night, ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the Texas coast Tue. Patchy dense fog is possible for portions of the U.S. coastal waters through the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tranquil weather conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea with only a few patches of shallow moisture traversing the basin. No deep convection is associated with these weak, isolated showers. The region remains under the dominance of a strong high pressure system positioned well north of the islands. The moderate pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also depict fresh to strong NE-E winds in the Windward Passage, with the strongest winds occurring in the entrance, between eastern Cuba and NW Haiti. Seas in the waters described are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central Caribbean, with fresh winds over the E Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere through tonight. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage tonight. Trade winds will diminish some this weekend, except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse nights and into the early mornings. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters tonight before subsiding. Looking ahead to next week, fresh to strong winds will pulse S of Hispaniola, in the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge remains the dominant feature across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak cold front continues to move gradually eastward, extending from 31N31W to 26N53W, transitioning into a stationary front that stretches to 28N64W. A few showers are noted north of the stationary front. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are present north of the frontal boundary. Seas are 6-8 ft in these waters. A weak surface trough is noted off the coast of Florida but no deep convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found north of 28N and betwen 64W and 77W, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are evident in the latest satellite-derived wind data between the SE Bahamas and northern Hispaniola. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support a large area of moderate to locally fresh easterly winds, mainly south of 25N and between the SE Bahamas and 30W. NE-E swell sustain seas of 6-8 ft. Lastly, the weak low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic has weakened into a surface trough along 23W, extending from 19N-29W. No deep convection is observed in association with this feature. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 27N55W to 28N63W. The front will dissipate Sat. A cold front will move off the Georgia and northern Florida coasts Sat night or early Sun. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of 67W and south of 24N will gradually subside tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong winds will pulse N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight, and likely again during the middle of next week. $$ DELGADO