000 AXNT20 KNHC 292130 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 11W and 20W, and from 00N to 07N between 20W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the NW Gulf with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the NW Gulf, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds continue over the western Gulf. Winds there will diminish on Fri as a weak cold front moves into the western Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will prevail into Fri, except for fresh to strong in the NE Gulf on Fri. The cold front should stall from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico Sat, then dissipate Sat night. In advance of the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across the northern Gulf tonight through Fri night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the Gulf Sun night into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will maintain moderate to fresh winds across the eastern and southwestern Caribbean, and fresh winds in the central Caribbean, through today. A surface trough over the SE Bahamas will move northwestward tonight, allowing the ridge north of the region to strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri night. Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to fresh across the basin for the weekend, except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse at night and into the early mornings. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters into Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N54W to 28N65W. A surface trough extends across the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of 60W with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are found N of 25N between 35W and 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move east into Fri, stall Fri night in the far NE waters, then dissipate over the weekend. The surface trough will drift NW through early Fri before dissipating. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Georgia and northern Florida coast Sat night. Fresh to strong SW to W winds just ahead of the front should be confined to areas north of 29N. Large E swell east of 68W and south of 25N will continue through Fri before subsiding. $$ AL