000 AXNT20 KNHC 291641 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N26W to 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ from 08N southward between 41W and the African coast. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extending from a 1031 mb high pressure center over the Carolinas dominates the weather across the Gulf waters, precluding significant convection. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are present across the eastern part of the basin, with fresh to strong S winds over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 3 to 6 ft, except 6 to 9 ft in the northwest Gulf. For the forecast, winds will diminish by Fri as a weak cold front moves into the western Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will prevail into Fri, except for fresh to strong in the NE Gulf on Fri. The cold front should stall from the western Florida Panhandle to Tuxpan, Mexico Sat, then dissipate Sat night. In advance of the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to move from west to east across the northern Gulf tonight through Fri night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow is likely to return to the western and central Gulf Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The only notable convection on satellite this morning is found offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, dry air and subsidence is preventing significant convection elsewhere across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the basin, with areas of strong winds noted south of Haiti and north of Colombia. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, with localized 8 ft seas in the area of strong winds offshore Colombia. For the forecast, weak surface ridging north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh winds across the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean through today. A surface trough north of Hispaniola will move northwestward tonight, allowing the ridge north of the region to strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri night. Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to fresh across the basin for the weekend, except within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to pulse at night and into the early mornings. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters into Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to 26N67W, where it transitions to a surface trough and continues to the Bahamas near 23N73W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 70 nm either side of the front. A second trough analyzed at 15z from 27N76W to 22N78W is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 26N to 24N and east of the axis to 71W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft follow the cold front, with winds and seas diminishing off the coast of N Florida. Much of the rest of the basin's weather is being dominated by a 1029 mb surface high centered near 31N32W. This is resulting in moderate to fresh trades south of 28N, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. North of 28N, closer to the high's center, winds are gentle and seas are 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, 1015 mb low pressure is centered midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Canary Islands near 19.5N19W. Across the northern quadrant of the low pressure center, fresh to strong NE winds are occurring, with seas of 10 to 12 ft found west and northwest of the low center. Some scattered convection is noted E of the low, just offshore Western Sahara. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move east into Fri, stall Fri night in the far NE waters, then dissipate over the weekend. The surface trough will drift NW through early Fri before dissipating. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Georgia coast by early Sun. Large E swell east of 68W and south of 25N will continue through Fri before subsiding. $$ Nepaul