000 AXNT20 KNHC 282136 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from 06N10W to 04N32W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 01N to 08N between 13W and 30W, and from 01N to 07N between 45W and 51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong return flow is noted over the western Gulf west of 93W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the western Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the eastern half of the Gulf will slide eastward and dissipate tonight. This is allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to set up in the western Gulf, beginning this afternoon. Winds will diminish by Fri as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast. Elsewhere, moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf will become mostly fresh Thu and fresh to strong southeast on Fri. The weak cold front should stall from SE Louisiana to Tampico Mexico late Fri night, then dissipate into Sat night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sat night and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S flow could return to the western and central Gulf by Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the western Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will maintain moderate to fresh winds across the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean through Thu. Locally strong winds will pulse late tonight S of Hispaniola and N of Colombia. A cold front north of the basin will weaken, allowing the ridge north of the region to strengthen. As a result, trade winds across the central Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras Fri night. Trade winds will diminish again to moderate to fresh across the basin for the weekend. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N63W to 24N71W, then continues as a surface trough to eastern Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds are west of the front/trough south of 26N, and gentle to moderate west of the front and north of 26N. Seas in this area are in the 3-5 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are south of 25N east of the front to 50W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are over these waters north of 25N. East of 50W, Fresh to strong winds cover the waters from 12N to 26N, and moderate to fresh over the remainder of the waters. Seas are in the 9-12 ft range over the area of strong winds, and 6-9 ft elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue east into the end of the week, while the surface trough remains stationary through tonight before moving slowly northwestward Thu into early Fri near the Bahamas. The trough will dissipate by late Fri. Fresh NE winds will prevail NW of the surface trough through Thu. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Georgia coast Sun. Large E swell east of 68W and south of 25N will slowly subside through Fri. $$ AL