000 AXNT20 KNHC 280604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ is along 02N at the Prime Meridian, 02N07W 03N11W 03N30W 03N42W 02N44W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward between 15W and 25W, from 05N to 09N between 34W and 39W, and from 04N to 07N between 41W and 48W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... One surface trough is along 25N85W to the coast of Alabama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward between 84W and 89W. A second surface trough is from the southern Yucatan Peninsula, to 22N95W, to 27N91W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 28N southward from 90W westward. Moderate to fresh winds are from the second surface trough westward. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet from the second surface trough westward, and near the Yucatan Channel. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure over the area will slide eastward and weaken into Wed night. This will allow for fresh to strong southerly winds to set up in the NW Gulf. Winds will diminish Thu night as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf coast. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds will become mostly fresh east to southeast winds, except for fresh southerly winds in the west central and SW Gulf through Fri. The weak cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Fri, then become stationary and weaken through Sat night. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will become established over most of the Gulf Sun and Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 24N73W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Windward Passage, to 14N76W in the Caribbean Sea. A shear line is along 21N78W in SE Cuba, to NE coastal Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the west and northwest of the line that runs from 17N70W, to the coast of Panama along 78W. Moderate to fresh winds span the entire Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the NW corner of the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in the remainder of the area. Surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean Sea through the weekend. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean. Locally strong winds will pulse at times S of Hispaniola and N of Colombia. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters into Thu night. A shear line extends from east-central Cuba to the coast of NE Honduras. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are behind the shear line. These winds are expected to continue through early Wed as the shear line gradually weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N67W, to 26N74W, to Cuba near 21N78W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from 25N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 64W westward. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are from the cold front westward. Moderate to fresh winds are between 60W and the cold front. The exception is strong winds from 20N southward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet from 26N northward between 60W and the cold front. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 26N southward. Fresh to strong winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet, are from 60W eastward. A 1034 mb high pressure center is near 33N39W. A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 23N20W. A surface trough curves away from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 25N20W 23N18W 20N20W 18N26W 20N30W 23N32W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is between the 1015 mb low pressure center and surface trough, and the western Atlantic Ocean cold front. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is between the 1015 mb low pressure center and Africa. A cold front stretches from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and into eastern Cuba. This front will stall from SE of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos and into the Windward Passage Wed, then weaken and dissipate through the end of the week. Fresh NE winds will prevail behind the front into Thu. A cold front is likely to reach the Georgia coast Sun and Sun night. Large E swell east of 65W and south of 26N will slowly subside through late week. $$ mt/sk