000
AXNT20 KNHC 272150
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends from 07N11W to 04N40W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 15W and 35W,
and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 46W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from 
northern Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh winds
are west of the trough, and with light to gentle winds elsewhere
across the Gulf. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range west of the 
trough, 4-5 ft near the Yucatan channel, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will slide 
eastward and weaken through Wed night. This will allow for fresh 
to strong southerly winds to set up in the NW Gulf. Winds will 
diminish on Thu as a weak cold front approaches the NW Gulf 
coast. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate north to northeast winds 
will become mostly fresh east to southeast winds, except for 
fresh southerly winds in the west-central and SW Gulf through 
late Fri. The weak cold front is expected to move into the NW 
Gulf Fri, then become stationary and weaken through Sat night. 
Gentle to moderate southerly flow will become established over 
most of the Gulf Sun and Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Caribbean waters. 
Seas are in the 5-8 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to
the northern Caribbean into the weekend. This will continue to 
provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, 
central, and southwestern Caribbean. East swell will continue to 
affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters 
through Thu. A shear line extends from east-central Cuba to the 
coast of NE Honduras. Mostly fresh north to northeast winds are 
behind the shear line. These winds are expected to continue 
through early Wed as the shear line gradually weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N67W southwestward to the central 
Bahamas and to central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of
3-5 ft are west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds are east of
the front to 60W, except reaching strong speeds S of 20N. Seas
are in the 4-7 ft range N of 26N east of the front to 60W, and
7-10 ft S of 26N. East of 60W, fresh to strong winds and seas of
8-12 ft prevail. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 
31N65W to 26N72W, and transition to a stationary front to central
Cuba Wed afternoon, and from near 30N55W to 28N62W, and continue
as a weakening stationary front to the central Bahamas and to 
east-central Cuba by Thu afternoon. The frontal boundary will 
become aligned E to W as a stationary front near 29N by Fri 
afternoon, and gradually dissipate through Sat night. Moderate to
fresh north to northeast wind behind the front will become fresh
northeast winds south of 28N and west of 73W on Wed, then 
northeast to east moderate to fresh winds south of 30N and west 
of 69W by Thu afternoon. A cold front may approach the Georgia 
coast Sun and Sun night. Large E swell east of 70W and south of 
26N will slowly subside into late week. 

$$
AL