000 AXNT20 KNHC 271613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Dec 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes along the northern Gulf of Guinea, crossing the Prime Meridian along 04N. The ITCZ continues through Cape Palmas in Libera, extending into the Atlantic from 05N09W to the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 12N, between 14W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from 25N97W to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are present within 120 nm of this boundary in the SW Gulf. West of the trough, winds are fresh from the N-NW. East of the trough winds are moderate from the N-NE. Seas are 2-5 ft across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will slide eastward and weaken through Wed night. This will allow for fresh to strong southerly winds to set up in the NW Gulf. Winds will diminish on Thu as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate north to northeast winds will become mostly fresh east to southeast winds, except for fresh southerly winds in the west-central and SW Gulf through late Fri. The cold front is expected to weaken as it moves across the NW Gulf Fri and Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shearline has developed along an old frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean, extending from central Cuba to central Honduras. West of the shearline winds are fresh from the NE with 5-7 ft seas. East of the shearline, winds are gentle to moderate from the NE with 3-5 ft seas. In the central and eastern Caribbean, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the E with 5-7 ft seas. Locally strong winds offshore Colombia are generating seas to 8 ft in the southern Colombian Basin. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean into the weekend. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and southwestern Caribbean. East swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Thu. A shear line extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly fresh north to northeast winds are behind the shear line. These winds are expected to continue through early Wed as the shear line gradually weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N70W, across the Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm east and 240 nm west of the boundary. Winds are moderate to fresh from the N-NE behind the front and moderate from the S ahead of the front. Seas are 3-6 ft in the area. The central Atlantic is dominated by a relatively tight pressure gradient between a 1033 mb high near 32N39W and lower pressure along the ITCZ. Recent satellite-based observations confirm winds are fresh to strong from the east, with 10-14 ft seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1010 mb low pressure system near 24N21W is supporting strong to near gale force E and NE winds north of the low and east of 30W. These winds are generating seas of 14- 17 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, A cold front extends from a weak 1022 mb low that is north of the area near 33N68W, southwestward to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. The cold front will reach from near 30N55W to 28N62W, and continue as a stationary front to the central Bahamas by Thu afternoon, then weaken and dissipate by Fri afternoon. Moderate to fresh north to northeast wind behind the front will become fresh northeast winds south of 28N and west of 73W on Wed, then northeast to east moderate to fresh winds south of 30N and west of 69W by Thu afternoon. Meanwhile, large E swell east of 70W and south of 26N will slowly subside into late week. $$ Flynn