000 AXNT20 KNHC 262105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... In the eastern Atlantic a 1015 mb low pressure system is centered near the Canary Islands. The gradient between this feature and the subtropical high will generate an area of gale force N-NE winds north of 26N, between 22W and 30W. Winds are expected to reach gale force this evening from 26 Dec at 1800 UTC to 27 Dec at 1200 UTC. These winds will generate very rough seas of 14-17 ft. Please read the high seas forecast issued by METEO- FRANCE at the website: gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N24W to the equator at 50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 08N between 30W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the coast of Northern Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Light to gentle winds are west of the trough as well as the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the high pressure center. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the SW Gulf as well as the SE Gulf in the vicinity of the Yucatan channel. Seas of 3-5 ft are elsewhere south of 25N, and 1-3 ft north of 25N. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Tue night. Fresh S winds will increase to locally strong in the NW Gulf by mid week ahead of the next cold front. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the basin through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of this boundary. Fresh to strong winds are found west of the stationary front as well as over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the NW Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the south central Caribbean. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean into late week. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through the next 24 hours. E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed night. A weakening stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind it. The front will dissipate tonight. Winds and seas will slowly improve through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the special features section for details about the gale- force wind conditions that are forecast in the eastern Atlantic. A dissipating stationary front extends from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas and into central Cuba. A broad area of scattered moderate convection is noted along and NW of this boundary, extending to the Florida coast. Gentle to moderate winds, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. SE of the front, Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail north of 25N to 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-10 ft, are south of 25N and west of 60W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, prevail east of 60W. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate tonight. The remnants of the front will linger through midweek in the area, before been pushed again eastward by the next front late this week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the vicinity of the front. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W and S of 25N will slowly subside into late week. $$ AL