000 AXNT20 KNHC 252200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Dec 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: Gale force winds and very seas will continue across the Veracruz offshore waters through this evening. Winds over the SW Gulf will diminish overnight and become gentle to moderate by Mon with seas subsiding below 12 ft by Mon morning. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for Meteor, S of 20N between 22 and 35W. Gales are forecast to begin Monday. Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from near 04N07W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 07N between 07W and 23W, and from 03N to 08N, between 25W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the gale-warning in effect for the Veracruz offshore waters. Outside of the gale force winds, high pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1033 mb high in south Texas. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf. Scattered showers are noted across much of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are noted elsewhere over the SW Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-14 ft range over the SW Gulf, and 7-10 ft elsewhere S of 24N and west of 90W. Seas of 4-7 ft are cover the remainder of the waters S of 26N, with seas of 1-3 ft N of 26N. For the forecast, gale-force NW winds will prevail through the evening hours over the Veracruz offshore waters in the wake of a front that currently extends SE of the basin. Very rough to high seas are expected in this area. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail elsewhere across most of the Gulf waters. Strong winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico will diminish by Mon morning as well as seas dropping below 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will settle over the whole basin by late Mon and continue through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is observed NW of the front. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-9 ft are found west of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds are noted east of 80W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west of 80W. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range s of 17N, and 3-5 ft N of 17N. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Fri night. E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with fresh to strong winds and rough seas following it. The front will linger in this area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail behind the front through Mon night, when conditions will slowly improve as the front weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see above for more on a gale warning over the eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N66W through the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers are observed within 300 nm west of the front. Moderate NW winds and 5-7 ft seas are observed NW of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are E of the front to 60W, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. High pressure dominates the central Atlantic, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 35N39W. The gradient between this feature and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the Atlantic from 05N to 25N between 30W and 60W. Seas are 9-12 ft in this area. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 21N27W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are noted behind the front with moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are 11-14 ft north of the front. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N66W to the Bahamas to central Cuba near 23N79W. Moderate W to NW winds are occurring behind the front with subsiding seas. The front will linger through midweek through this area. Winds across the waters W of 70W will become light to gentle by Mon with moderate seas. Fresh winds could develop behind the stationary front by midweek as the front finally pushes eastward out of the area. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W will slowly subside through midweek. $$ AL