000 AXNT20 KNHC 251035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Dec 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: The strong cold front that moved across the Gulf remains draped over the NW Caribbean. Meanwhile, gale force winds and very rough to high seas will continue across the Veracruz offshore waters through this evening. Winds over the SW Gulf will diminish overnight and become gentle to moderate by Mon with seas dropping below 12 ft by Mon morning. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 04N10W to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 02N30W to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 06W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section on the gale-warning in effect for the Veracruz offshore waters. High pressure extends across the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1034 mb high in central Texas. Showers are quickly streaming across the southern Gulf and into Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas range 4-6 ft across the northern Gulf with seas to 8 ft over the southern Gulf. Strong to gale- force winds continue over the SW Gulf near Veracruz with strong N to NE winds in the SE Bay of Campeche and northern Yucatan. Seas range 8 to 15 ft over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, gale-force NW winds continue over the Veracruz offshore waters in the wake of a front that currently extends SE of the basin. Very rough to high seas are expected in this area. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail elsewhere across most of the Gulf waters. These winds will continue to diminish today. The gale- force winds across Veracruz will persist through this evening. Strong winds over the SW Gulf of Mexico will end by Mon morning as well as seas dropping below 12 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will settle over the Gulf by Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is draped across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is east of the front from 16N to 20N between 79W and 86W along with gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas. Behind the front, fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted by overnight scatterometer data. Seas are up to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Farther south, strong to near gale- force winds prevail in the south- central Caribbean and the NW Colombia offshore waters, in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas range 8-11 ft. In the eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern Caribbean through the middle of next week. This will continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Pulsing strong to near-gale E winds will persist over NW Colombia offshore waters through Thu night. NE and E swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean waters through Wed. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras with fresh to strong winds and rough seas following it. The front will linger in this area through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will prevail behind the front through Mon night, when conditions will slowly improve as the front weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N67W to the Bahamas to central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the front N of 24N and W of 59W. Showers are also noted behind to front moving off the Florida coast and over the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds prevail west of the front with seas to 4-7 ft W of 77W and 8-10 ft between 77W and 70W. Ahead of the front, moderate SW winds are noted. High pressure extends over the central Atlantic anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N42W. N of 26N, winds are moderate. S of 26N, fresh to strong tradewinds prevail. A large area of swell covers the central and tropical Atlantic waters. Seas range 8 to 13 ft between 07N and 31N between 35W and 65W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front is approaching the Canary Islands and extends from 31N17W to 25N26W. The tail-end of the cold front is dissipating to 22N37W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are behind the front. Seas range 12 to 15 ft N of the front. Gentle to moderate winds mostly prevail off the African coast with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will linger through midweek through this area. Winds across the waters W of 70W will become light to gentle by Mon with moderate seas. Fresh winds could develop behind the stationary front by midweek as the front finally pushes eastward out of the area. Meanwhile, large swell E of 60W will slowly subside through the next week. $$ AReinhart