000 AXNT20 KNHC 222319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: An Arctic cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast in the next few hours. The front will bring widespread gale force NW winds and high seas across most of the basin tonight through Fri. Winds to storm-force winds are expected Fri afternoon near Veracruz. Gale-force winds will come to an end by Fri night for most of the basin. Gale-force winds are expected to continue near Veracruz through Fri night and possibly Sat and Sun. An area of 12 ft seas and greater will spread across nearly all of the Gulf west of 85W with peak seas around 20 ft. Conditions will slowly improve later this weekend and into early next week. A blast of arctic air will also follow the front bringing to south Florida the coldest temperatures so far this season during the upcoming holiday weekend. SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast tonight into early Fri morning. W to NW gales should occur west of the frontal boundary Fri morning through Fri afternoon north of 30N west of 74W. Seas will reach to 15 ft on Fri. By Fri night, the gales will move north of the forecast waters. Strong winds will slowly diminish on Sat and the seas will gradually subside by Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale and Storm Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 01.5N43W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 20W and 28W, and within about 240 nm N of the ITCZ W of 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on the Storm warning. This front will bring dangerous weather conditions across the Gulf region tonight through Fri. A weak pressure gradient currently dominates the basin with a weak 1014 mb low pressure located near 29N88W. A trough is associated with this low and extends from 29N88W to 25N90W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the trough. Abundant multilayer clouds with possible showers are noted across much of the Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have recently developed across the eastern Gulf E of 85W from 25N to 29N. Another 1014 mb low pressure is near the coast of Texas, near 27.5N95W. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of this low that is producing gentle to moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, a Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for details. Gale-force winds will come to an end by Fri night for most of the Gulf with conditions slowly improving through the weekend and into early next week. However, gale-force winds will continue across the Veracruz offshore waters through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Morning satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean where seas remain in the 6 to 9 ft range. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low. Elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Over the NW Caribbean, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted, except 1 to 2 ft in the lee of Cuba. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the region producing a few areas of isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the region will extend to the northern half of the basin through the forecast period and continue to provide moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern, central and SW Caribbean. Locally strong winds are expected to continue for the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia offshore waters through Mon. Mixed N and E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters through the forecast period. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late Fri into early Sat along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas that will continue to affect this region of the basin through Mon night. The front will reach from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan by Sat morning, from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Sun morning where it will stall before weakening Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the SW N Atlantic. Please read the Special Features section for details. The low pressure area previously located off NE Florida continues to move northward, and now is just inland along the North Carolina-South Carolina border. A cold front extends from the low center to near 30N77W to southeast Florida near 27N80W. Only a few showers are near the frontal boundary. To the E, a cold front reaches from the NE Atlantic southwestward into the discussion area near 30N35W to 25N47W then becomes stationary to 24N70W. The remnants of this western end of the front have begun to lift northward and continue toward the cold front and low over the Carolinas. Fresh to strong SE winds prevail to the N of the stationary front and its remnants north of the Bahamas. Seas are 8 to 11 ft across this area in NE swell. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by a ridge with a 1030 mb high pressure system near the coast of Portugal. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ support moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic, especially south of 20N. Seas are 7-10 ft in these waters. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning associated with the next cold front moving off NE Florida. Winds will diminish below gale-force Fri evening. However strong winds will prevail through Sat. Moderate to fresh winds and remaining swell will subside Mon. $$ Stripling