000 AXNT20 KNHC 211730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SW N Atlantic Gale Warnings: As of 1500 UTC, a 1018 mb low pressure area is situated NE of Cape Canaveral, Florida near 29.5N79.5W. Minimal gale force winds and seas in the 8-11 ft range are associated with this gale center forecast to move N of area in about 24 hours. A second area of gales has developed over the NW Bahamas with the center located just W of Great Abaco and just S of Gran Bahama Island. The low is forecast to move toward 25N70W on Thu while dissipating. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong easterly winds between the low and a ridge to the N, particularly N of 25N between 70W-77W. Winds are forecast to increase to gale force on the N semicircle of this low later today with seas building to 8-11 ft E of the Bahamas. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Dangerous marine conditions will be expected across the Gulf waters with a strong cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast Thu evening. A large area of gale force N winds with building seas of 15 to 18 ft will follow the front. Winds are expected to reach 40 to 45 kt near the Tampico and Veracruz areas Thu night into Fri morning. Occasional storm force gusts cannot be ruled out in the western and central Gulf late Thu night through Fri. A blast of arctic air will also follow the front bringing to south Florida the coldest temperatures so far this season during the upcoming holiday weekend. The cold front will move across Central and South Florida on Friday exiting the Gulf region late Fri or Fri evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ then extends from 06N20W to 03N30W to near the coast of Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 04N between between 05W-13W. Similar convective activity is from 00N-03N between 30W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about a strong cold front forecast to enter the Gulf waters by Thu evening. This front will bring dangerous weather conditions across the gulf region. As of 1500 UTC, a 1018 mb low pressure is analyzed near 25.5N88W with a cold front extending SW to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A stationary front extends from the same low center across the east Gulf and central Florida near Lake Okeechobee. Low level clouds and patches of light rain are noted W of the front over the Bay of Campeche and SE Mexico. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are W of the front over the Bay of Campeche. Fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are observed over the NE Gulf between the low and a ridge over the SE CONUS. For the forecast, the above mentioned fronts will become diffuse while the low drifts S. The low is forecast to dissipate in about 12-24 hours. Winds elsewhere west of the front will gradually diminish by later today. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean where seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low. Elsewhere across the E and central Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Over the NW Caribbean, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted, except 1 to 2 ft in the lee of Cuba. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a surface ridge north of the region will support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean through the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean. Moderate long- period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri and reach from central Cuba to Belize by Sat night, dissipating from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on two gale centers in the SW N Atlantic. Elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic, a ridge extends from near the Outer Banks of North Carolina across the forecast waters between 60W and 70W producing moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow and seas of 8 to 11 ft in N swell. A stationary front extends from near 31N45W to 22N65W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the wake of the front with seas of 9 to 13 ft in N swell. Th eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a ridge with a 1029 mb high pressure located E of the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in N swell within these winds. For the forecast west of 55W, refer to the Special Features section for details on two gale centers. The next cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast early on Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front by Thu evening. Strong to gale force winds will follow the front with seas building to 10 to 15 ft across the N waters, mainly N of 29N. $$ GR