000 AXNT20 KNHC 210515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1016 mb low pressure is centered near 28.5N88W with a cold front extending south-southwestward from the low to 18.5N94W and a warm front extending eastward from the low to Cedar Key, Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show strong to near gale-force winds over the northern and NW Gulf. Buoy 42036 near 28.5N 84.5W recorded a sustained 1-min wind of 33 kt gusting to 43 kt at 21/0310 UTC at an elevation of 4 meters. Seas are 6-9 ft across the northern and NE Gulf. Winds in the NE Gulf should diminish below gale force in the overnight hours. Meanwhile, gale force NW winds are likely occurring within 60 nm of the coast of Vercruz, Mexico behind the cold front. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force there around 21/0600 UTC. Seas are currently peaking at around 12 ft. The low will continue moving ESE across the Gulf of Mexico Wed, with a cold front extending SSW and a warm front extending E from the low. Winds and seas will quickly diminish Wed afternoon and evening. West Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will cross South Florida tonight and move east-northeast near the NW Bahamas by Wed morning. The low will support NE to E gale force winds Wed through Wed evening just northeast of the Bahamas, as the low moves eastward along 26/27N. These gales should diminish by early Thursday as the low reaches near 26N65W. At the same time, a second area of gales is affecting the waters east of N Florida, associated with a separate low pressure along a sharp surface trough. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to gale-force winds are occurring north of 28N and west of 77W. A buoy just north of the area has been gusting to 35 kt during the past couple of hours. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Winds will gradually weaken in our waters south of 31N Wed night as the trough lifts northeastward. Peak seas should reach around 10-11 ft northeast of the Bahamas and 12-13 ft east of N Florida Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues to 05N22W. The ITCZ then extends from 05N22W to 02N37W to 03N51W. A few showers are noted south of the monsoon trough and east of 20W. Similar convection is observed south of the ITCZ and between 24W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on the two gale areas over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the NE Gulf, north of 27N and east of 85W. Outside of the impacts of the low pressure and frontal boundaries mentioned above in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate winds are occurring south of 26N and east of 91.5W, where seas are 3-5 ft. Seas in the strong winds west of the cold front and north of the stationary front are mostly 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Thu evening followed by near- gale to gale force NW winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri night, with strong gales possible off Veracruz beginning of Fri. Conditions will slowly improve through the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the eastern United States extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions, except for a few pockets of shallow moisture moving through the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the ridge to the north and lower pressures in northern South America sustain mainly fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force winds off NW Colombia. The seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to locally moderate easterly winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean through the week and weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Moderate long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri and reach from central Cuba to Belize by Sat night, dissipating from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on two gale warnings in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N47W to 25N58W, where it becomes a stationary front that continues southwestward to 23N67W, becoming a shear line that extends westward to the Florida Straits. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present near the cold front. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted behind the frontal boundaries, especially south of 28N and west of 67W. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are found in the remainder of the western atlantic behind the frontal boundaries. Seas are 5-11 ft behind the frontal boundaries, with the highest seas occurring north of 30N and east of 67W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 6-10 ft are noted ahead of the cold front, north of 27N and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are found between the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba and northern Hispaniola, including the entrance to the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge positioned over the NW Africa. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh trade winds south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. The northerly swell is producing seas of 6-9 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring near 06N45W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will continue moving slowly E tonight. A low pres currently over the Gulf of Mexico will cross South Florida tonight and move ENE near the NW Bahamas by Wed morning. NE gale-force winds will accompany that low Wed and Wed night. Another low will develop N of the area along 80W with gale-force winds tonight and Wed morning. Winds will become southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri, accompanied by strong to near- gale force NW winds and rough seas. NW gales are possible to the east of northern Florida with this front. $$ DELGADO