000 AXNT20 KNHC 201707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Dec 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1016 mb low pressure centered near 28N92.5W will move east-southeast across the Gulf of Mexico today, with a cold front extending south-southwestward and a warm front extending eastward from the low. Ahead of the cold front in the E Gulf, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 24N and east of 88W. The gradient between the low and strong high pressure over the SE United States are causing E winds to gale force in the SE Louisiana to the Alabama coastal waters late this morning, and in the NE Gulf offshore waters this afternoon. Gale-force NW winds are also forecast offshore Veracruz this afternoon and evening. The low will shift toward S Florida by late tonight while the cold front slowly moves eastward, stalling and weakening by mid-week. Fresh to strong N winds are expected elsewhere behind the front through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the low and front. Peak seas are current 8-10 ft just south of Louisiana and expected to reach the same in the NE Gulf of Mexico and offshore of Veracruz. SW N Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will cross South Florida tonight and move east-northeast near the NW Bahamas by Wednesday morning. The low will support NE to E gale force winds on Wednesday just northeast of the Bahamas, as the low moves eastward along 27N. These gales should diminish by early Thursday as the low reaches near 26N65W. At the same time, a second area of gales is expected to form Wednesday morning to the east of N Florida, associated with a sharp surface trough. Winds will gradually weaken in our waters south of 31N Wednesday night as the trough lifts northeastward. Peak seas should reach around 10 ft northeast of the Bahamas and near 12 ft east of N Florida on Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 07N between 10W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warnings over the Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the impacts of the low pressure and frontal boundaries mentioned above in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SE to S winds are occurring in the SE portion of the Gulf of Mexico. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Thu evening followed by near-gale to gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri night, with strong gales possible off Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging north of the Caribbean combined with a 1010 mb Colombian Low are contributing toward fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central Caribbean. Elsewhere the E trades are moderate.Seas are 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through Sat night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Moderate long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri and reach from central Cuba to Belize by Sat night. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on SW N Atlantic Gale Warnings. A cold front from 31N54W to 25N66W continues as a shearline to across the Central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 29N between 45W-52W. Surface ridging north of the cold front/shear line extends from 31N75W to 29N58W as well as from a 1027 mb high near 32N20W to 22N60W. Between the front/shearline and ridge, winds are moderate to fresh out of the northeast. The pressure gradient between the eastern surface ridge and the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 8-10 ft between 20W-70W across the Atlantic due to wind waves and NW to N swell. For the forecast west of 55W, looking ahead, winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. Gales are possible to the east of northern Florida with this next front. $$ Landsea/Rivera