000 AXNT20 KNHC 200407 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Dec 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A 1014 mb low pressure system is located near 28N94W and a cold front extends from the low to 23N98W. A warm front extends from the low center to SE Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters N of 23N and between 86W and 94W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are observed N of 25N and W of 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The low will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue, with a cold front extending SSW and a warm front extending E from the low. The gradient between the low and strong high pressure over the SE United States will cause winds to gale force over the NE Gulf of Mexico on Tue afternoon. Seas will build to near 10 ft in the northern Gulf. The low will shift east-southeast toward South Florida by late Tue night while the cold front slowly moves eastward, stalling and weakening by mid-week. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front Tue and Tue evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the low and front. Winds and seas will diminish in the NE Gulf late Wed into Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N20W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07N and between 15W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information on the developing gales in association with the low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico. Outside of the impacts of the low pressure mentioned above in the Special Features section, high pressure over the eastern United States dominates the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are present E of 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft, with the highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found S of 25N and W of 90W. For the forecast, looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Thu evening followed by near- gale to gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri night, with strong gales possible off Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong ridge over the eastern United States extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The exception are isolated pockets of shallow moisture traversing the basin in the trade flow. The pressure gradient between the strong high pressure and lower pressure in northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trade breezes in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Colombia. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are evident in satellite derived wind data in the eastern Caribbean. Seas in the area described are 3-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are observed elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri and reach from central Cuba to Belize by Sat night. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N55W to 27N65W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front that extends southwestward to the Florida Straits. A few showers are noted near the frontal boundary, but no deep convection is evident. Moderate to fresh N-NW winds are present behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds occurring near 27N70W. Seas behind the cold front are 5-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring N of 26N and E of 72W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are found ahead of the front, mainly N of 28N and between 43W and 56W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters are dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure system positioned near 27N39W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds S of 22N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft with the highest seas occurring just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will extend from 31N49W to 23N67W to 24.5N71W Tue evening. A low pres along this stationary front over the Gulf of Mexico will cross South Florida Tue night and move northeast near the NW Bahamas Wed morning. The low pres is expected to develop gale force winds on Wed as it continues east along 26/27N to the east of the Bahamas. These gales should diminish by early Thu as the low nears 26N65W. At the same time, a second area of gales is expected to form Wed morning to the east of N Florida, associated with a sharp surface trough. Winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. Gales are possible to the east of northern Florida with this next front. $$ DELGADO