000 AXNT20 KNHC 192314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 06.5N11W, then continues to near 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 03.5N38W to the coast of NE Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 0.5N to 06.5N between 02W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb low pressure system has moved to along the southern Texas coast near 28N96W this afternoon. A warm front extends from the low center eastward across the northern Gulf to near 28N95W. A cold front stretches from the low center southward and then curves inland to just S of Tampico, Mexico. Widespread patches of light rain, showers and drizzle are affecting south Texas and NE Mexico in association with this low. Large clusters of strong thunderstorms are occurring north of the warm front and extend inland across southwest and south central Louisiana, and also across the west central Gulf, from 23.5N to 26N between 90W and 93W, along a surface trough extending SE from the surface low to 20N93.5W. Other scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted E of the trough, N of 24N and E of 88W. The trough combined with a ridge across the eastern Gulf supports an area of fresh to strong E to SE winds northeast of the trough to about 90W and to the coast of SW Louisiana, where seas are 6 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail east of 90W, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 3 ft along the Florida Panhandle. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft are occurring southwest of the trough including in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned low pres will move eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue, with a cold front extending SSW and a warm front extending E from the low. The gradient between the low and strong high pressure over the SE United States will induce winds to gale force over the NE Gulf of Mexico on Tue afternoon. The low will shift east-southeast toward South Florida by late Tue night while the cold front slowly moves eastward, stalling and weakening by mid- week. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front Tue and Tue evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with the low and front. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast Thu evening followed by near-gale to gale force winds across the basin through Fri night, with strong gales possible off Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... An old frontal trough has dissipated across the NE Caribbean along 17N. A band of broken low clouds with possible showers is across and to the north of 17N. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is across the basin, and will prevail across the region through Tue producing isolated to widely scattered passing showers. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are evident in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, with strong winds near the coast of Colombia based on recent scatterometer data. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly trade winds are present in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are observed in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a ridge north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic waters for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by late Fri and reach from central Cuba to Belize by Sat night. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N57W then continues SW across the central Bahamas to the coast of western Cuba near 23N82W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 nm SE of the front to the E of 72W. Mainly moderate N to NE winds are observed in the wake of the front W of 62W, except locally fresh immediately along the front W of 66W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are elsewhere behind the front E of 62W. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SW winds are N of 29N to about 50W with seas of 9-12 ft in NE swell. Seas of 7-10 ft in NE swell follow the front covering the waters E of 73W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere southeast of the front under the influence of a ridge. Farther east, a weakening frontal trough extends from the Madeira Islands to 20N40W. Satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate to fresh trades across the tropical Atlantic S of the trough and N of the ITCZ due to the pressure gradient between these two features. Seas of 8-10 ft in northerly swell dominate most of the Atlantic forecast waters E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will reach from 31N55W to central Cuba tonight, then extend from 31N49W to 23N67W to 24.5N71W Tue evening, with a stationary front continuing to South Florida. A low pres along this stationary front over the Gulf of Mexico will cross South Florida Tue night and move E near the NW Bahamas Wed morning. The low pres is expected to produce gale force winds on Wed as it continues E along 26/27N to the E of the Bahamas. These gales should diminish by early Thu as the low nears 26N65W. At the same time, a second area of gales is expected to form Wed morning to the east of N Florida, associated with a sharp surface trough. Winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. Gales are possible to the east of northern Florida with this next front. $$ Stripling