000 AXNT20 KNHC 190907 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, entering the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 07W and 42W. Similar convection is noted within 180 nm of the coast of French Guiana. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has pushed southeast of the basin extending from the Straits of Florida northeast across the SW N Atlantic. A trough in the west-central Gulf to eastern Bay of Campeche combined with high pres north of the area supports fresh to strong winds northeast of the trough to 90W, with moderate to fresh winds east of 90W. Seas are 5-9 ft northeast of the trough. A few showers are noted in satellite imagery near these boundaries. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring southwest of the trough including in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, low pres will move from NE Mexico to offshore Texas by early this evening with a warm front extending northeast and a developing cold front trailing to the southwest. The low will shift east-southeast toward SW Florida through mid-week while the cold front slowly moves eastward, stalling and weakening by mid-week. A stronger cold front may move off the Texas coast into the far northwest Gulf Thu night followed by near-gale or gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri night, with strong gales possible off Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough enters the NE Caribbean near 16.5N62W and continues westward to 16.5N71W. A few shallow showers are seen near the trough axis. The rest of the Caribbean Sea experiences fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are evident in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly trade winds are present in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in the waters described are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes and 2-4 ft are observed in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through at least Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by Fri accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is draped across the SW N Atlantic waters, extending from 31N63W to across Andros Islands to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 240 nm north of 26N and ahead of the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh N-NW winds are evident behind the frontal boundary, along with seas of 4-8 ft, highest along 31N. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 7-11 ft are noted north of 27N ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere southeast of the front under ridging, with seas of 4-7 ft. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N21W to 20N45W, where it becomes a surface trough continuing southwestward to the Leeward Islands. No deep convection is occurring near the boundary. Moderate to locally fresh W winds and seas of 8-13 ft are noted north of 28N and between 23W and 41W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure system near 26N46W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of 25W. Seas south of 20N and west of 25W are 7-11 ft. Moderate NE winds and 6-9 ft seas are south of 20N and east of 25W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N55W to central Cuba tonight, then weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Low pressure will move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas Wed while dissipating. Near-gale to gale force winds are possible from 26N to 28N east of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, as the low pressure shifts eastward. Winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by the end of the week, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. $$ Lewitsky