000 AXNT20 KNHC 190433 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Dec 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, entering the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 03N33W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between 15W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Everglades City, Florida to 25N87W, where it becomes a stationary front to 23N92W. A surface trough extends from NE Mexico to 21N92W and a weak 1014 mb low pressure is located along the trough near 22N96W. Finally, another surface trough is found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A few showers are noted in satellite imagery near these boundaries. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure over the Ohio River valley and the weather conditions are fairly quiet. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are noted N of 22N. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found from 23N to 26N and W of 89W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring S of 22N in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move southward across the SE Gulf into the Straits of Florida overnight, except lift northward over the western Gulf ahead of another low pressure moving through northeast Mexico. The whole front will lift northward Tue as a warm front while the low pressure moves into the north- central Gulf. A trailing cold front over the western Gulf will dissipate through mid week. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front may move off the Texas coast into the far northwest Gulf Thu night followed by near-gale or gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the basin through Fri, with strong gales possible off Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough enters the NE Caribbean near 17N62W and continues westward to 17N71W. A few shallow showers are seen near the trough axis. The rest of the Caribbean Sea experiences fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are evident in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly trade winds are present in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in the waters described are 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes and 2-4 ft are observed in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through at least Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail in the E Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds in the W Caribbean. Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel by Fri accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is draped across the SW Atlantic waters, extending from 31N67W to southern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the frontal boundary to 63W and north of 25N. Moderate to fresh N-NW winds are evident behind the frontal boundary, along with seas of 4-8 ft. The highest seas are found north of 29N and east of 75W. Moderate SW winds and seas of 6-12 ft are noted ahead of the front to 55W and north of 27N. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 28N26W, where it becomes a stationary front to 21N43W and then a surface trough continues southwestward to the Leeward Islands. No deep convection is occurring near the boundary. Moderate to locally fresh W winds and seas of 8-13 ft are noted north of 28N and between 27W and 43W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure system near 26N50W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and west of 25W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a small area of strong winds near 06N44W. Seas south of 20N and west of 25W are 6-10 ft. For the forecast, a cold front reaching from Bermuda to Homestead, Florida will reach from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night, then weaken from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Low pressure will move along the front from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas Wed while dissipating. Near-gale to gale force winds are likely from 26N to 28N east of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, as the low pressure shifts eastward. Looking ahead, winds will become more southerly Thu ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast by the end of the week, accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. $$ DELGADO