302 AXNT20 KNHC 162339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Dec 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Ocean METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Wind Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure center is in Portugal. The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of gale-force winds in the NW part of the IRVING marine area, which covers the waters that are from 30N to 35N between 22W and 35W. The outlook period, which covers the next 24 hours that are after the initial 36-hour long forecast period, consists of: the persistence of cyclonic near gale or gale-force winds from 30N northward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 089N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 03N30W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 17W and 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches just south of the Florida Keys to 24N85W. A trough extends from 24N85W to a 1012 mb low located in the southern Bay of Campeche to 22N97W. High pressure extends across the northern Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1020 mb low in the Mississippi Valley. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are noted north of the front in the SE Gulf with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will stall over the Florida Straits through this evening. Weak low pressure will form over the west-central Gulf tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the far northwest Gulf. The low will move rapidly across the southern to the east of the Gulf along the stalled front through early Sun, while the reinforcing front moves eastward across the northern Gulf. The reinforcing front will sweep through the southeast Gulf by early Mon. Looking ahead, the western portion of the front will shift northward across the western Gulf late Mon and Tue while weak low pressure moves into the northwest Gulf. The low pressure will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through mid week, with a trailing cold front moving across the western and central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure over the Atlantic Ocean extends over the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient from this high pressure and the low pressure in Colombia is giving way to strong winds north of Colombia in addition to the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are up to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted across most of the central Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the eastern basin with seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted in the northwest Caribbean with slight seas. For the forecast, surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through at least Tue night, reaching near-gale off Colombia tonight and Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic and through the Anegada Passage into the northeast Caribbean for the next several days. A cold front will dissipate as it pushes into the Yucatan Channel Sun night into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds that are in the NW part of the METEO-FRANCE marine section IRVING. A cold front extends east of Florida from 31N74W to just south of the Florida Keys. No significant convection is associated with this front at this time. Fresh to strong southerly winds are ahead of the front, N of 29N and W of 63W. Moderate NW winds are west of the front. Seas off the Florida coast are up to 5 ft, with 8-11 ft near the strong winds ahead of the front. East of the cold front, a 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 25N65W. Light to gentle winds are noted near this high. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 25N58W. Strong cyclonic winds are noted N of 28N between 29W and 52W. Large NW swell is associated with this system, with seas ranging 13-24 ft N of 23N between 32W and 60W. Seas to 8 ft stretch as far south as 19N and as far west as 75W. A second 8 ft swell group is off the Lesser Antilles from 07N to 17N between 50W and 60W. In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure is noted near the Canary Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted with seas 8-9 ft. Winds off the African coast are moderate to locally fresh with 8-9 ft seas. For the forecast, the cold front off Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits overnight, then stall from 31N55W to the Florida Straits by early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. A stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat night, reach from Bermuda to northwest Cuba by Sun night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba late Mon night before starting to weaken and stall from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Meanwhile, large long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for the next several days. Looking ahead, low pressure may move from the eastern Gulf across Florida Tue night, then continue to east of the northern Bahamas through late Wed. $$ AReinhart