000 AXNT20 KNHC 161802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Dec 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Ocean METEO-FRANCE Gale-force Wind Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure center is in Portugal. The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of gale-force winds in the NW part of the IRVING marine area, which covers the waters that are from 30N to 35N between 22W and 35W. The outlook period, which covers the next 24 hours that are after the initial 36-hour long forecast period, consists of: the persistence of cyclonic near gale or gale-force winds from 30N northward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by METEO-FRANCE, at the website: gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W, to 03N22W, and 03N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N southward between 22W and 57W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the southernmost parts of Florida, to 24N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough continues from 24N85W, to a SW Gulf of Mexico 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 20N94W. The trough continues from the 1012 mb low pressure center, northwestward, to 28N101W in Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 28N southward. A 1020 mb high pressure center is in NE Louisiana. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are to the north and west of the front. An exception has been E to SE winds in the west central and NW Gulf closer to the high pressure center. Light to gentle variable winds, and sea heights that reach 3 feet, are in the far SE Gulf to the south of the front, except for moderate southerly winds that are through the Yucatan Channel. A cold front reaching from near Flamingo, Florida to 24N85W will stall over the Florida Straits today. Weak low pressure will form over the west-central Gulf tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the far northwest Gulf. The low will move rapidly to the east of the Gulf along the stalled front through early Sun, while the reinforcing front moves eastward across the northern Gulf. The reinforcing front will sweep through the southeast Gulf by early Mon. Looking ahead, the western part of the front will shift northward across the western Gulf late Mon and Tue while weak low pressure moves into the northwest Gulf. The low pressure will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through late Tue, with a trailing cold front moving across the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the northern half of the area, and the eastern one-third of the area. Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner. A 1019 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center is near 27N67W. The combination of this high pressure center, and comparatively lower surface pressures in Colombia, is helping to continue to support fresh to strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, in the south central sections, including in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the E and SW Caribbean sections. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, cover the NW corner. The monsoon trough is along 09N71W in NW Venezuela, beyond 07N81W in the southern sections of Panama, and into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 76W westward. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, during the period that ended at 16/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, are: 0.42 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, and 0.15 in Trinidad. Surface ridging north of the region will maintain fresh to strong NE to E tradewinds across the central and SW Caribbean Sea through at least Tue night with moderate to locally fresh winds elsewhere. Large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to move into the tropical Atlantic Ocean and through the Mona Passage and the Anegada Passage, into the northeast Caribbean Sea, for the next several days. A cold front will dissipate as it pushes into the Yucatan Channel Sun night into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds that are in the NW part of the METEO-FRANCE marine section IRVING. A cold front passes through 31N44W to 27N53W. The front is stationary from 27N53W to 26N61W. This frontal boundary is connected to a 979 mb low pressure center that is about 675 nm to the north of the area along 44W. Storm-force winds are to the north of the area. The sea heights are ranging from 20 feet to 27 feet from the cold front northward between 45W and 50W. The sea heights are ranging from 11 feet to 20 feet from 25N to the cold front between 45W and 52W. The sea heights are ranging from 8 feet to 16 feet from 26N northward between 35W and 45W. The wind speeds have slowed down to less than gale-force. The surface pressure gradient has been weakening comparatively in the north central subtropical Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward between 30W and 41W. A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N74W, to the NW Bahamas, to the coast of Florida from 25N to 26N along 80W, and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south and southeast of the cold front from the Straits of Florida northeastward. Fresh to strong SW winds, and sea heights that have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet, have been to the east of the cold front, from 29N northward between 71W and 79W. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N67W. Expect light to gentle variable winds near the high pressure center, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere from 60W westward. A broad subtropical ridge is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are from 20N southward. Gentle to moderate trade winds are from 20N northward away from the area of the central Atlantic Ocean cold front. The sea heights have been ranging from 7 feet to 10 feet in N to NE swell. An exception is that the sea heights have been ranging from 4 feet to 6 feet to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 1020 mb high pressure center is 27N25W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 12 feet from 24N northward from 35W eastward. A cold front extending from low pressure off New Jersey to the northern Bahamas and South Florida will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits tonight, then stall from 31N55W to the Florida Straits by early Sun before dissipating by late Sun. A stronger cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Sat night, reach from Bermuda to northwest Cuba by Sun night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba Mon night before starting to weaken and stall from 25N55W to the southeast Bahamas through Tue. Meanwhile, large, long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for the next several days. $$ mt/ec