000 AXNT20 KNHC 140523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 04N30W and westward to 03N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60nm of the ITCZ between 25W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed across the Gulf, extending from SW Florida to just north of New Orleans, Louisiana. Overcast low clouds persist across the northern Gulf waters to the north of the front, from the Big Bend to coastal Alabama. Fair skies dominate the remainder of the Gulf, except for high clouds streaming northeastward across the Texas and Louisiana waters ahead of an approaching cold front. Fresh to strong winds prevail across most of the central and western Gulf, with E to SE winds east of 90W and SE to S winds west of 90W. A recent scatterometer pass revealed locally strong winds in the NE Gulf just south of the stationary boundary. Recent buoy observations show seas have built to 8 ft across the Texas waters. Seas elsewhere across the central and western Gulf are 4 to 6 ft. in the far eastern Gulf, light to gentle winds prevail with seas under 3 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow will prevail over the central and western Gulf tonight into Wed ahead of the next cold front, which is forecast to move off the coast of Texas Wed morning. The front will reach from Apalachicola, FL to the central Bay of Campeche early Thu and from Sarasota, FL to the central Bay of Campeche Thu night before slowing down and beginning to weaken. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front Wed over the NW Gulf, and Wed night into Thu across the north-central and NE Gulf of Mexico. Strong to locally near-gale force NNW to N winds are expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front Wed night into Thu for the central and eastern Gulf. The weak front should become stationary Fri night from the Florida Keys to the far south- central Gulf of Mexico before weakening further. The front should remain in about the same position through Sun night as a surface trough forms along the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern persists across the Caribbean, as a cold front has become stationary to the north of the region across the NW Bahamas and S Florida. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail across the NE Caribbean. Moderate easterly tradewinds prevail elsewhere across the basin except for fresh winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the east and south central basin and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere across the NW. Large NE swell across the Atlantic continues to move through the Caribbean Passages of the NE Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. An upper level trough is inducing a surface trough that stretches from the Leeward Islands to the Leeward Antilles. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted NE of the ABC Islands. For the forecast, winds will increase slightly across the basin beginning Wed as high pressure builds to the east of Florida. This will expand the area of fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Fri. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters for much of the week. Another large set of N swell is forecast to begin to propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic waters starting late on Fri and continue through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a low pressure system offshore Nova Scotia entering the area near 31N52W and continuing SW to 23N70W and to the Central Bahamas, where it becomes stationary to SE FL. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm of the boundary north of 25N. A recent scatterometer pass found moderate N-NW winds behind the boundary east of 66W. High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic U.S. states is allowing for moderate to fresh NE-E winds behind the remainder of the boundary in the W Atlantic. Scatterometer data also found fresh to strong SW-S winds about 240 nm ahead of the cold front, north of 26N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell are mainly behind the front and are reaching the Bahamas and central to northern FL. High pressure ridging dominates the remainder of the Atlantic basin, except for E of the Lesser Antilles, where the base of an upper level trough over the NE Caribbean is supporting an area of active convection. The ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center near 25N30W. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is over most of the N Atlantic basin around this high, except for an area of moderate to locally fresh winds from 05N to 20N between 26W and 53W. Seas are 9 to 11 ft N of 26N in NW swell and mainly 8 to 10 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will weaken on Wed as high pressure builds east of Florida. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of days. The large and powerful low pressure system north of the area will bring strong to near gale force W winds Wed night through Thu night to the waters east of 65W and north of 27N. Very large seas can be expected in this area. Farther west, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop offshore NE Florida beginning Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N75W to West Palm Beach, Florida early Fri, and from near 31N65W to the Florida Keys early Sat. A pre-frontal line of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some potentially strong, is likely to move offshore the southeastern U.S. coast early on Thu. On Sun, a reinforcing cold front is expected to merge with it. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N62W to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Sun night. The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward across the northern and central waters through Sat and exit the area late Sat. Fresh northwest to north winds will follow behind the merged front. $$ Mora