828 AXNT20 KNHC 121804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: The METEO-FRANCE marine forecast consists of gale-force winds in the marine area IRVING, until 13/0000 UTC. The IRVING marine area extends from 30N to 35N between 22W and 35W. A cold front passes through 31N28W 24N40W 20N50W 16N60W, and into the Caribbean Sea from 16N60W, along 15N/16N, to 16N73W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 150 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front from 25N northward. Strong to near gale-force SW winds are from 24N northward between 25W and 38W. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 10 feet from 14N northward from 40W eastward, in general, and from 11 feet to 14 feet from the Canary Islands northward from 20W eastward in particular. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 14 feet from 16N northward between 40W and 60W. The earlier gale-force wind warning, for the marine zone that is called METEOR, that covers from 25N to 30N between 22W and 35W, ends at 12/1800 UTC. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast that is issued by Meteo-France, at the website: http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, to 05N20W 04N30W 04N44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, to 26N/27N along the eastern coast of Florida, to the south of Lake Okeechobee, to the Florida west coast along 27N. The front becomes stationary front at the Florida west coast along 27N, and it continues to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 30N87W. A cold front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, through 29N90W, to the Texas Gulf coast along 28N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 22N northward. Broad surface high pressure is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1019 mb high pressure center is in Mexico near 20N99W. Mainly gentle wind speeds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in parts of the NE Gulf will continue through this evening. This activity may develop again on Tue, as a weak stationary front lingers in the area, and as an upper-level disturbance passes through this part of the Gulf. Otherwise, relatively quiet conditions will continue today as a surface ridge over the area begins to shift eastward. Fresh to locally strong SE return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf tonight into Tue night as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thu night and from the Straits of Florida to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, diminishing to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front later for the central and eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 16N60W, along 15N/16N, to 16N73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. A surface trough is along 76W/77W, from 10N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N, in the Bahamas between Exuma and Cat Island. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between 70W and 80W. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are in the coastal waters of Colombia and Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the NE Caribbean Sea passages due to large swell from the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet offshore Colombia. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere in the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean Sea, and from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW corner of the area. The ITCZ is along 07N/08N, from 74W in Colombia, through the southern sections of Panama, and into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N southward from 76W westward, including in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters from Belize to Costa Rica. A weakening cold front extending from 18N55W to Martinique is forecast to dissipate by early Tue. In the wake of this front, weak high pressure ridging north of the Caribbean Sea is allowing for moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to pulsing locally strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia. Little change is expected through Tue night. Then, winds will increase slightly across the basin during the middle of the week as high pressure builds to the east of Florida. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the NE Caribbean passages and affect the Tropical N Atlantic waters for much of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N71W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond 26N/27N along the eastern coast of Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the south-southeast of the cold front, from 25N northward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 25N northward from 68W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from the Greater Antilles northward from 60W westward. A surface trough is along 76W/77W, from 10N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N, in the Bahamas between Exuma and Cat Island. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the surface trough. The base of an upper level trough is near 13N48W. A cold front passes through 31N28W 24N40W 20N50W 16N60W, and into the Caribbean Sea from 16N60W, along 15N/16N, to 16N73W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 240 nm to 700 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front, from 10N to 25N. Broad surface low pressure covers the Atlantic Ocean from the cold front northward from 55W eastward. A 1017 mb high pressure center is near 23N70W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the waters that are from the 31N28W-16N73W cold front northward between 55W and the 31N71W-to-the NW Bahamas cold front. Moderate to fresh winds are to the southeast of the line that passes that through 31N20W 22N40W 14N60W, and from the 31N28W-to-16N60W cold front northward between 40W and 55W. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to Fort Pierce, Florida. The front will reach from near 30N55W to the central Bahamas to West Palm Beach, Florida Tue evening, then weaken on Wed as high pressure builds in east of Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds will come in behind this front tonight into Tue. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of days. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore NE Florida beginning late Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N76W to Stuart, Florida early Fri, and from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas to Havana, Cuba by late Fri night. The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward across the northern and central waters, while fresh west to northwest winds follow in behind the front. $$ mt/ja