000 AXNT20 KNHC 121049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northeast Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N31W southwestward to beyond 25N40W. A line of moderate to strong thunderstorms is occurring along this frontal boundary. Meteo- France is forecasting gale force SW winds today in the marine zone Meteor, which extends from 25N-30N between 22W-35W. Expect seas of 12 to 16 ft in this area today. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force tonight as the front continues moving E. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 03.5N33W to 04N44W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 240 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends over the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms are noted from 28N to 29.5N between 84W and 88W. Isolated tstorms are seen from 24N to 26.5N between 87W and 89W. Mainly gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over portions of the NE and north-central Gulf of Mexico through this morning as a weak stationary front lingers over the area. Otherwise, quiescent conditions will prevail through today as a surface ridge over the area begins to shift eastward. Fresh to locally strong SE return flow is expected in the western and central Gulf tonight into Tue night as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Seas will build in the area of strongest winds. The front is expected to move over the NW Gulf Wed morning, reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Thu night and from the Straits of Florida to the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong N winds are expected behind the front Wed in the western Gulf, decreasing to moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front later for the central and eastern Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The western end of a weakening Atlantic cold front extends from 17N60W to 16N66W. Other than a few possible light showers, fairly quiet weather prevails across the basin. Fresh trades are occurring near the coast of Colombia and just off the S coast of Hispaniola. Moderate winds are found elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the eastern and western parts of the basin. Seas are 5-8 in the NE Caribbean passages due to large swell from the Atlantic. Seas are 6-7 ft offshore Colombia. Seas are 3-5 ft elsewhere over the E and central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft across the NW basin. For the forecast, the weakening cold front over the eastern Caribbean is forecast to dissipate today. In the wake of this front, weak high pressure ridging north of the Caribbean Sea will allow for moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to pulsing locally strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia through Tue night. Then, winds will increase slightly across the basin during the middle of the week as high pressure builds to the east of Florida. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to propagate through the NE Caribbean passages for much of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning in the NE Atlantic. A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N76.5W to Stuart, Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N77W across the NW Bahamas to 22N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of 26N between 72W and 77W. Moderate N winds are occurring to the NW of the cold front. Farther E, a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 27N54W. A cold front extends from 31N31W to 25N40W to 17N62W. Convection is noted along the front north of 22N and east of 43W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted north of 30N between 36W and 40W. Strong winds and seas over 12 ft with these features are limited to areas north of 23.5N and east of 43.5W. Fresh winds are occurring elsewhere north of 22N and east of 52W. Large N and NE swell dominates most of the Atlantic, producing wave heights of 8 to 11 ft W of 65W. Significant wave heights are 11 to 14 ft over the central Atlantic north of 22N and east of 65W. Over the deep tropics, moderate to fresh trade winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail. A surface trough extending from 16N47W to 08N49W is helping to produce some scattered showers and isolated tstorms from 05N to 16N between 44W and 58W. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1018 mb high pressure is centered near 26N21W. A surface ridge extends WSW from the high to 15N60W. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N76W to Stuart, Florida will extend from 31N64W to Stuart, Florida by this evening, from 30N55W to the central Bahamas to West Palm Beach, Florida Tue evening, then weaken on Wed as high pressure builds in east of Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds will come in behind this front tonight into Tue. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to affect much of the area for the next couple of days. Looking ahead, fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop offshore NE Florida beginning late Wed night as a strong cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. The front is forecast to move off the coast late Thu, reach from near 31N76W to Stuart, Florida early Fri, and from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas to Havana, Cuba by late Fri night. The fresh to strong southerly winds will shift eastward across the northern and central waters, while fresh west to northwest winds follow in behind the front. $$ Hagen