000 AXNT20 KNHC 102250 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Dec 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A string of low pressure centers along a western Atlantic front extend between 45W and 63W across the Atlantic just N of the discussion area. These lows are forecast to move SE through Sun, and move across the NE portions of the discussion area. Gale force NW winds have crossed southward of 31N in the past couple of hours, and cover the area between 60W and 66W to the N of 30N. Seas across this area are estimated at 14 to 17 ft. These conditions will diminish Sun morning as the low centers weaken and move more E along 30N while weakening. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 35N20W to near 25N30W this evening. A morning ASCAT pass found gale force winds ahead of the front, mainly N of 23N between 27W and 32W. Winds are assumed to have diminished to around 30 kt across this area late this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue within 120 nm of the front. The front will continue to lift northward tonight, allowing winds to subside further, and seas to gradually abate through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at the website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12.5W to 07.5N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N15W to 05N26W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08N between the west coast of Africa and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure centered offshore the Mississippi River Delta. Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds, except SSE across the Texas near and offshore waters. Seas are 2-4 ft across these areas. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail through the Sun night, then shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will continue through the weekend, except becoming moderate to fresh from the southeast to south across the central Gulf late Mon night into early Wed. Winds may increase to locally strong in the western Gulf late Mon night into early Tue evening as the front approaches. The front is expected to move across the NW Gulf Wed and Wed night, then reach from southwest Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by Thu night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Late morning scatterometer data showed light to gentle winds in the eastern Caribbean and moderate to locally fresh NE winds in the central and western Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is allowing for fresh to strong winds to pulse offshore Colombia, where seas are up to 8 ft. Higher seas continue at 6-8 ft in the Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean due to large NE swell originating from the strong low system in the central Atlantic. For the forecast, large NE swell across the central Atlantic will continue to move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through tonight, subsiding on Sun before building again early next week as another large N swell event reaches the region. High pressure north of the Caribbean will allow for gentle to moderate northeast to east trade winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong pulsing northeast to east winds offshore Colombia during the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings in the basin. A cold front, related to the low pressure centers mentioned in the special features section, continues to move south and eastward over the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N45W to 22N60W to 22N72W. A stationary front extends from the FL/GA border to near 28N76W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds prevail north of the cold front and E of 72W, while fresh N to NE winds prevail N of the stationary from W of 77W. Seas are 10-15 ft in N and NE swell north of the cold front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds cover a large area near the Tropical N Atlantic from the equator to 20N between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6 to 10 ft in N and NW swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it shifts east of the area by late Sun night. Large long-period north to northeast swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the eastern Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week. Long-period east swell is expected to reach the Florida offshore waters north of 27N well into next week. $$ Stripling