216 AXNT20 KNHC 101009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N30W to 21N39W. Gale force winds are noted ahead of the front, mainly N of 28N between 27W-31W. Seas in this area are expected to remain in the 20-24 ft range. Scattered moderate convection extends about 180 nm ahead of the front. Winds will weaken by this morning at 12 UTC, but swells will prevail through the weekend. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure center will approach from the N today to the area near 31N58W supporting gale force winds to develop near 30N62W tonight. Seas of 15 to 19 ft will prevail in the area of strongest winds. These conditions will dissipate by Sun 11/06 UTC as the low continues moving E while weakening. More information, please refer to the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough mainly E of 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure centered near 29N88W. Winds are light to gentle in the NE Gulf, where seas are 1-3 ft. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will continue meandering over the northern Gulf waters through the weekend, then shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh early next week. Winds may increase to locally strong speeds and seas build up to 7-8 ft in the western Gulf as the aforementioned front approaches from the NW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating moderate to fresh NE winds west of 73W in Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Fresh to strong NE winds are pulsing off NW Colombia coast, generating seas to 7 ft. In the E Caribbean, gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail with mainly 4 to 6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 10 ft near and SW of Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell originating from the strong low system in the central Atlantic. For the forecast, large NE swell across the central Atlantic will continue move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through today, decreasing on Sun and increasing again early next week as another swell event reaches the region. Surface ridging north of the Caribbean maintains NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in offshore Colombia into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings in the basin. Elsewhere, seas of 8 to 11 ft cover the remainder SW N Atlantic waters E of the Bahamas due to long period NE swell associated with the strong non-tropical low N of our area. High pressure in the far eastern Atlantic is leading to light winds north of 22N off the African coast. For the forecast W of 55W, the powerful non-tropical low over the north Atlantic continues to move away from the area. Large long-period N to NE swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N today. $$ ERA