000 AXNT20 KNHC 092359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A deepening 958 mb non-tropical low pressure system is located near 36N39W. A cold front associated with the low extends from a triple point and enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N33W to 21N45W while the warm front reach the E Atlantic waters from 31N23W to the Canary Islands. A very large area of gale force winds remain N of 24N between the front and 35W, however a broad area of fresh to near gale force winds cover the region N of 21N between 24W and 47W. Scattered showers and tstms associated with the broad area of low pressure and fronts cover the NE Atlantic subtropical waters. Seas of 8 to 25 ft cover the entire subtropical waters with the highest seas of 13 ft to 25 ft being in the vicinity of the cold front. Conditions will gradually improve this evening in the subtropical Atlantic as the low moves quickly NE. However, seas will remain very rough north of 25N through the weekend. Large, long-period N to NE swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N through Sat. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A new low will develop along 65W and N of 31N by late Sat and move SSE entering the central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop near the low along 28N. These conditions will dissipate by early next week as the low moves quickly E while weakening. More information about these systems, including the associated Storm and Gale Warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and extends to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 03N46W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ from 01N to 08N between 34W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues meandering over the northern Gulf waters while a surface trough remains in the Bay of Campeche. The ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered over the Louisiana coastal waters provides gentle to moderate E to SE winds S of 27N, except for moderate to fresh winds between the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are 3-4 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, the high will meander through the weekend, then shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh early next week. Winds may increase to locally strong speeds and seas build up to 7-8 ft in the western Gulf as the aforementioned front approaches from the NW. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Locally strong NE winds are off NW Colombia. In the E Caribbean, gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail with mainly 4 to 6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 12 ft near and SW of Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell originating from the gale force low in the central Atlantic. For the forecast, the intense non-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic will continue to move away from our area. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will continue move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through late Sat, decreasing on Sun and increasing again early next week as another swell event reaches the region. Ridge north of the Caribbean maintains NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in offshore Colombia into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warnings active in the basin and a new developing low that will lead to new gales. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from 31N58W to 29N68W to 30N75W supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds N of 25N between the front and 68W along with 11 ft seas. Seas of 8 to 11 ft cover the remainder SW N Atlantic waters E of the Bahamas due to long period NE swell associated with the low in the special features. For the forecast W of 55W, the powerful non-tropical low over the north Atlantic will continue to move away from the SW Atlantic. Large long-period north to northeast swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N through Sat. A new low will develop E of Bermuda late Sat and move SE entering the central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop late Sat N of 28N and E of 70W. These conditions will dissipate by late Sun as the low moves quickly E while weakening. $$ Ramos