325 AXNT20 KNHC 091011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A non-tropical low pressure area with a central pressure of 972 mb is located about 1000 nautical miles east of Bermuda near 32N42.5W. An area of scattered moderate convection is observed north of 18N, between 20W and 45W. Storm force winds remain in the NW quadrant of the low, embedded in a very large area of gale force winds within 300 nm west of the low and 500 nm east of the low. Very rough to high seas cover an extensive area north of 16N, between 27W and 70W. Conditions will gradually improve today in the subtropical Atlantic as the low moves quickly NE. However, seas will remain very rough north of 25N through the weekend. Large long-period N to NE swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through Sat. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A new low will develop along 65W and N of 31N by late Sat and move SSE entering the central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop near the low along 28N. These conditions will dissipate by early next week as the low moves quickly E while weakening. More information about these systems, including the associated Storm and Gale Warnings, can be found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 03N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 31W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 mb surface high is centered near 29N86W supporting generally fair weather conditions and mainly gentle to moderate easterly winds over the basin. Seas remain 1 to 4 ft over the majority of the basin, with 3 to 5 ft seas S of 25N including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure will meander through the upcoming weekend. The ridge will shift eastward early next week as a cold front approaches the NW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the weekend, increasing to moderate to fresh early next week. Winds may increase to strong speeds and seas build up to 8 ft late Tue in the NW Gulf as the aforementioned front approaches from the NW. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is generating moderate to fresh NE winds west of 70W in Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. In the E Caribbean, gentle to moderate N winds prevail with mainly 4-6 ft seas. Seas are 8 to 12 ft near and SW of Atlantic passages due to long period NE swell originating from the storm force low in the central Atlantic. For the forecast, the intense low pressure system in the central Atlantic is gradually lifting northeastward away from the area through the weekend. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through late Sat. The current weather pattern will sustain NE-E winds across much of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong pulsing NE-E winds will occur in offshore Colombia into early next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds, occasionally pulsing to strong speeds, will affect the Caribbean Passages and the lees of the Greater Antilles through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Storm and Gale Warnings active in the basin. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure ridge off NE Florida is supporting gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in the far western Atlantic. In the far eastern Atlantic, weak high pressure prevails offshore W Africa, causing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. For the forecast W of 55W, the intense low pressure system over the subtropical Atlantic is forecast to accelerate today into the north Atlantic and strengthen into a powerful non-tropical cyclone. Large long-period N to NE swell will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean, producing high seas into the start of next week, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N through Sat. A new low will develop along 65W and N of 31N by late Sat and move SSE entering the central Atlantic this weekend. Gale-force winds will develop near the low along 28N. These conditions will dissipate by early next week as the low moves quickly E while weakening. $$ ERA