000 AXNT20 KNHC 071023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Storm Warning: A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic about 670 nautical miles ESE of Bermuda centered near 29N53W with a minimum central pressure of 994 mb, continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms in the northern semicircle of the low. This convection, numerous moderate to isolated strong in intensity, extends N of 26N between 52W and 62W. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the day or two. By Thursday night or early Friday, the low will move northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid- latitude trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical or tropical development of the system. Regardless of development, this system is already producing a large area of gale force winds and storm force winds have developed this morning on the north side of the low, extending to beyond 31N between 51W and 58W. Gales current are impacting waters N of 25N, between 47W and 60W. Strong gale to storm force winds are expected to continue through Thu night. Peak seas have increased to around 30 ft near 31N54W, and are expected to continue rising today. Seas of 12 ft or greater are present N of 21N 43W and 67W. This area of very rough seas will continue to expand into tonight. Overall, there is a medium chance of subtropical or tropical development of this low within the next 48 hours. More information about this system, including the associated storm warning, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...- The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 08N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of the ITCZ extending to 03N, between 20W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb surface high pressure centered just S of the Florida Big Bend is dominate the weather over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog is restricting visibility over waters within about 30 nm of the shore from the Upper Texas coast to N of Tampa Bay. Light to gentle winds are observed in the NE Gulf near the high pressure center. Moderate to fresh easterlies are observed in the southern Gulf, while moderate to fresh SE winds are observed in the western Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will meander about the NE Gulf and North Florida through Sat. Patchy fog may continue to impact portions of the northern Gulf coastal waters today. Moderate to fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through tonight then diminish through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure near the Florida Peninsula and lower pressure in the southern Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, offshore Colombia, and in the lees of Cuba and Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh NE winds dominate elsewhere, except gentle winds are impacting SE Caribbean waters. Seas are generally 4-6 ft throughout the basin, with the exception of the Mona and Anegada Passages, where northerly swell originating from the central Atlantic is increasing seas to 6-8 ft. For the forecast, deepening low pressure across the central Atlantic during the next few days will maintain NE winds across much of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through the Caribbean Passages, in the lees of the Greater Antilles, and offshore Colombia into Fri. Large NE swell across the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters into the weekend, with highest seas tonight into Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a storm force wind producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48 hours. The powerful and strengthening low pressure in the central subtropical Atlantic is dominating weather across much of the basin. Strong winds or higher, rotating counter-clockwise around the low, are present N of 22N between 40W and 70W. Fresh winds then extend S to 18N and W to 75W. Areas offshore Florida are experiencing light to gentle NE winds and some patchy fog has formed within 30 nm of the NE Florida coast. To the S of 18N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. The low pressure is aiding in generate seas in excess of 8 ft N of 18N between 30W and 75W. To the S and W of this area, seas are 5 to 7 ft. Extending E from the low, an occluded front continues to 40W, where it transitions to a warm front that arcs to 25N30W, with then a cold front continuing SE to 25N25W before bending NE and extending to over the Canary Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 on both sides of the complex boundary. Winds are generally moderate or less on both sides of the boundary, except N of 30N and E of 30W, where a related 991 mb surface surface low over the Azores is generating strong mainly W winds, and seas of 10 to 14 ft. To the S of this low, seas are 7 to 10 ft across the eastern Tropical Atlantic. NE to E trades dominate the eastern Tropical Atlantic, with speeds moderate or less due to a 1015 mb surface ridge centered just N of the Cabo Verde Islands. A 120 nm wide band of scattered convection associated with a mid- level trough and northeastward moving moisture plume extends from near 14N50W to 30N36W, where it intersects with the aforementioned frontal boundary. For the forecast for areas W of 55W, see Special Features section above for details and forecast conditions that will dominate much of the region this week in association with the storm-force low centered near 29N53W that has potential for subtropical or tropical development. Otherwise, large long-period north to northeast swell generated by the low will impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the E Caribbean producing high seas into the weekend, with large E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri through Sat. $$ KONARIK