000 AXNT20 KNHC 051802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Storm Warning: The latest scatterometer pass captured gale force winds within 300 nm NE of the 1005 mb low pressure currently centered near 26N57W. It will continue to drift north, then curve E and begin to accelerate. This low is forecast to strengthen during this time. Areas of strong to near gale-force winds on the N side of this low will increase to gales tonight, with the area of gales expanding to all areas N of 28N between 45W and 60W Mon night into Tue. A broad area of 12 to 18 ft seas in a combination of N long period swell and wind waves generated by this low pressure will extend N of 23N between 40W and 65W. Sustained winds of 40 to 50 kts are forecast to begin Wed morning. Seas will become increasingly hazardous in this region as the low intensifies and winds increase, with seas in the area of storm force winds forecast to reach 20 to 25 ft Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough approaches the coast of Sierra Leone, but remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins offshore the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 07N30W and to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in satellite imagery within 180 nm of the ITCZ.. GULF OF MEXICO... The weak stationary front that stretched across the Gulf lifted northwards and inland as a warm front. The Gulf is now dominated by a ridge from high pressure located over the Mid-Atlantic States. Gentle to moderate SE winds are over the area, except in the southeast Gulf including the Florida Straits where winds are gentle easterlies. Seas are 3 ft or less, except for 5 in the Yucatan Channel and in the Bay of Campeche. The basin remains void of significant convection, with the exception of a cluster of thunderstorms moving W through the central Bay of Campeche. Dense fog continues over the coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida. For the forecast, high pressure across the NE Gulf will persist and dominate the basin through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressures of Colombia and the eastern Caribbean sea is allowing for fresh to strong N to NE winds south of Cuba and Hispaniola, including the Windward and Mona Passages, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, satellite scatterometer data reveals moderate trades over the eastern Caribbean where seas are 3 to 5 ft, and moderate to fresh NE winds over the W and NW Caribbean where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are also noted within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area, with areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Little overall change in weather pattern is anticipated during the forecast period. Large NE swell in the central Atlantic will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical Atlantic waters through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for information on storm force winds developing in association with low pressure SE of Bermuda. The Atlantic basin is becoming increasingly dominated by the strengthening 1005 mb low pressure centered near 26N57W. A surface trough extends from this system southwest to the Leeward Islands. Another trough extends to the E where it intersects a 1008 mb low near 28N32W. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 240 nm of these features. West of this system, scatterometer data found fresh N winds, mainly south of 25N and over the southern Bahamas to the Caribbean Islands with 8 to 10 ft NE swell. Offshore the Florida Peninsula and near the northern Bahamas, moderate N to NE winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by high pressure and gentle to moderate winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the low will drift north through midweek, then turn E and move away from the area late this week. Near Gale force winds are occurring across the far NE waters this morning and will increase to gale force tonight, and then briefly to storm force Wed morning, then gales continuing Wed afternoon through Thu. Long-period north to northeast swell will impact the Atlantic waters and passages between the southeastern Bahamas and the NE Caribbean with high seas through the week. $$ MORA