000 AXNT20 KNHC 030543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 03 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: Strong to near gale-force NE winds that are behind a cold front will increase to gale-force on Saturday morning, and the sea heights will range from 12 feet to 17 feet, from 28N northward between 48W and 54W. The gale-force winds will slow down, to less than gale-force, on Sunday morning a few hours before the sunrise. The maximum sea heights are forecast to reach 20 feet on Saturday night, and during the early morning hours of Sunday morning. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W, to 05N30W, to 05N50W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 01N northward from 05W eastward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 39W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 30W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through Georgia to 23N96W. A shear line is in the coastal waters of Mexico, between the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico and 24N98W. Precipitation: earlier rainshowers that were in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico were associated with the shear line. Some of the rainshowers have dissipated in the waters. It is possible that other precipitation may have moved inland in Mexico. An inland surface trough is along the line from the NW Yucatan Peninsula to the eastern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec just away from SW Guatemala. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N to 20N between the surface trough and 94W. Moderate easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the eastern Gulf. Gentle SE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the western Gulf. Fresh easterly winds are in the Florida Straits. It is likely for a cold front to approach the far northern Gulf Sun, then stall Sun night and dissipate on Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface pressure gradient, that is between the subtropical high pressure and comparatively lower pressure that is in the SW Caribbean Sea, is supporting fresh ENE winds in the majority of the basin. Strong winds are in the NW corner of the area, and in the Windward Passage. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, generally, reaching 8 feet in the NW corner. A tight pressure gradient, between building high pressure to the north and climatological low pressure over Colombia, will lead to moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area through Sat night, with areas of strong winds in the lee of the Greater Antilles, the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia. The wind speeds then will diminish slowly for the start of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds and the sea heights reaching 20 feet, during the next 33 hours or so, behind a cold front. A cold front passes through 31N56W, to 29N60W, to 25N70W, to the southern parts of Andros Island in the Bahamas. Strong to near gale-force NE winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet to 13 feet, are from the cold front northward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 12 feet, are within 200 nm to 300 nm to the south and southeast of the cold front. Fresh to strong winds are in the Straits of Florida. A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 24N50W. A surface trough is along 50W/51W from 21N northward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 25N northward between 45W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 26N between 37W and 45W, and from 20N northward between 50W and 60W. Fresh SE winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the surrounding area. An eastern Atlantic Ocean a cold front passes through 31N14W to 29N26W beyond 31N37W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. The sea heights are from 7 feet and higher, to the north of the line that passes through 31N14W 26N27W beyond 28N40W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from the cold front northward. Moderate NE winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N56W to the Central Bahamas. This front will slide east and out of the area Sat. High pressure in the wake of the front will lead to strong NE to E winds across much of the forecast area through Sat night. Long-period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas into the start of next week. $$ mt/sk