000 AXNT20 KNHC 302324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 01 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A fast moving cold front entered the NW Gulf this morning, and now stretches from the western Florida Panhandle to northeastern Mexico near 24N98W. The most recent scatterometer data show strong to near gale force N-NE winds behind the front with few wind barbs of 35 kt. A buoy observation offshore Port OConnor, TX also reported gale force winds. Seas of 8-9 ft are noted behind the front. A rope cloud delineates the leading edge of the frontal boundary while scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front, particularly near the Tampico area where gusty winds to 20 kt have been reported. Fresh to strong northerly winds will persist behind the front through early Thu morning. The front will reach from central Florida to northeastern Mexico this evening, where it will stall and gradually dissipate through late Thu. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W to 04N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N-07N between 32W-41W, and from 01N to 03N between 38W and 44W ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front producing frequent gusts to gale force is moving across the northern Gulf waters. Please see the Special Features section above for the latest information. Elsewhere ahead of the front across the Gulf, the pressure gradient remains fairly weak, resulting in mainly light to gentle E to SE breezes. A surface trough is analyzed over the SW Gulf and extends from 24N97W to the western Bay of Campeche. An ASCAT pass indicates the wind shift associated with this trough, with gentle northerly winds within about 60 nm of the coast of the state of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas ahead of the front are in the 1 to 3 ft range. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from central Florida to northeastern Mexico by early this evening, where it will stall and gradually dissipate through late Thu. Please, the Special Features section above for more details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the east and central Caribbean, including also the Windward Passage where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted across the basin moving westward and producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Thu night as a strong high pressure of 1035 mb settles N of the area. The aerial coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat night as the strong high pressure moves from the mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure centered near 32N52W to 26N62W where it becomes stationary to the central Bahamas. Patches of mainly low clouds with possible showers are along the frontal boundary. Isolated showers and thunderstorms area near the western end of the front over the Bahamas. Nassau was reporting thunderstorm in the vicinity. Mainly fresh north to northeast winds are present behind the front to about 60W, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. A surface trough runs from 27N50W to near 10N54W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are on either side of the trough axis. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are mainly on the E side of the trough from 20N-27N between 43W-51W. This trough is likely the surface reflection of a sharp upper- level trough extending from 31N51W to just E of Trinidad and Tobago Islands. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1021 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 36N30W. the pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports and area of fresh to locally strong trades over the eastern Atlantic, especially from 14N-23N E of 40W. Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the Atlantic waters with seas of 8-11 ft covering the waters SE of a line from 31N36W to 22N50W to 15N59W. This swell event reaches the Canary, Madeira and Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will dissipate tonight. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast this evening. The front will extend from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend. Of note: November 30 marks the end of the Hurricane Season across the Atlantic basin, that includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. In total, this hurricane season produced 14 named storms, of which eight became hurricanes and two intensified to major hurricanes. An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The 2022 season saw three hurricane landfalls along the coast of U.S. mainland. Hurricane Ian made landfall fists as a Category 4 storm in Cayo Costa, Florida, and again as a Category 1 in Georgetown, South Carolina. Hurricane Nicole made landfall as a Category 1 in north Hutchinson Island, Florida. Fiona made landfall outside the mainland U.S. as a Category 1 near Punta Tocon, Puerto Rico. Major Hurricane Ian tied for the fifth- strongest hurricane ever to make landfall in the U.S. $$ GR