000 AXNT20 KNHC 301741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A fast moving cold front entered the NW Gulf this morning, and now stretches from Vermillion Bay, LA to South Padre Island, TX. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds are noted behind the front, however, a buoy observation offshore Port OConnor, TX recently reported gale force winds. A line of thunderstorms is about 30 to 60 nm ahead of the cold front producing frequent lightning strikes. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf through this afternoon, more likely west of 94W. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in the NW Gulf this afternoon, then begin to subside late tonight into Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue along and ahead of the front. Winds will diminish on Thu as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward. Seas in the NW Gulf will subside to below 8 ft late on Thu. For details on this Gale Warning, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 07N18W, where recent scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends to 05N30W to 03N40W and to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-35W, and from 02N to 05N between 35W and 45W ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front producing gale force winds has entered the Gulf of Mexico stretching from Vermillion Bay, LA to South Padre Island, TX. Please see the special features section above for the latest information on the Gale Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere ahead of the front across the Gulf, the pressure gradient remains fairly weak, resulting in mainly moderate to fresh E to SE breezes. A surface trough axis is over the western Bay of Campeche allowing for winds to turn northerly along and within 60 nm of the eastern Mexico coast. Seas ahead of the front are in the 1 to 3 ft range. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from central Florida to northeastern Mexico by early this evening, where it will stall and gradually dissipate through late Thu. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to extreme southwestern Caribbean, mainly south of 13N and west of 77W where the eastern segment of the E Pacific monsoon trough is present. The rest of the basin has fairly tranquil weather conditions. High pressure north of the Caribbean continues to support fresh trade winds in the eastern central, and south-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found in the NW Caribbean and south of Hispaniola and Jamaica, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Thu night. Aerial coverage of strong winds will increase through Sat night as high pressure shifts offshore the mid- Atlantic region. Long- period northerly swells over the Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure centered near 34N52W. The cold front is analyzed from 34N52W to 30N53W to 27N60W to 26N65W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas. No deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Fresh north to northeast winds are present behind the front, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Similar winds are south of the front and west of 60W over the Bahamas to the FL peninsula where seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become stationary today and dissipate tonight. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast this evening. The front will extend from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend. Farther east, an upper-level low is identified to be near 22N45W. A large amplitude surface trough is just west of the upper low, extending along 50W from 30N to 15N. The close proximity of these systems are creating plenty of atmospheric instability that is promoting a rather concentrated area of scattered moderate convection that covers from 20N to 26N between 45W and the trough. ASCAT captured locally fresh winds in the areas of convection, with moderate winds elsewhere surrounding this feature. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that is centered in the northeast part of the Atlantic. The pressure gradient over the eastern Atlantic is resulting in fresh to strong winds from 10N to 26N between the W coast of Africa and around 41W. Fresh winds are also noted south of 15N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 8-12 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring in the area of strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted under a weak pressure gradient. $$ Mora