000 AXNT20 KNHC 300521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf early Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed and early Wed night. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Winds and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale Warning, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 04N24W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N24W to 02N37W to 00N50W. Isolated showers are observed south of 07N and west of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad 1027 mb high pressure system over New England extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico and no deep convection is seen across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds prevail in the Gulf, except for light to gentle winds south of 20N in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 20N and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, . ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is affecting the waters of the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly south of 14N and west of 79W. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. High pressure north of the Caribbean continues to support moderate to fresh trade easterly winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Winds occasionally reach strong speeds off southern Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are 3-5 ft in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Beginning late Thu afternoon, fresh to strong northeast winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and continue south of Hispaniola. These winds will spread a good distance to the southwest over the western and central Caribbean areas through Sat night as strengthening high pressure shifts offshore the mid- Atlantic region. Long-period north swell propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will subside on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N73W, where it becomes a stationary front to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Straits. No deep convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds are present behind the front, along with seas of 3-7 ft. Similar winds are evident south of 26N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther east, an upper level low is positioned near 21N46W and a surface trough extends from 24N45W to 15N47W. The interaction between these system generates scattered moderate convection within 200 nm on both sides of the trough axis. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered in the NE Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa sustain moderate to fresh NE-E winds south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. The exception was captured by a recent scatterometer satellite pass showing strong easterly winds from 16N and 23N and between 30W and 37W. Seas are 6-12 ft in these waters, with the highest seas occurring in the area of strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a weak cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N73W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. The cold front will reach from near 31N53W to 25N63W and continue as a weakening stationary front to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida early on Wed. The cold front will then become stationary, weaken during Wed and dissipate late on Wed. A stronger cold front will move off NE Florida by Wed night, reach from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high pressure in the wake of the front moves eastward. On Thu, expect increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W, including the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate across the waters W of 55W Fri through the weekend, with seas building to around 17 ft east of the Bahamas. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the weekend leading to potentially hazardous marine conditions. $$ DELGADO