000 AXNT20 KNHC 292323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed and early Wed night. As a result, seas will build to 8-10 ft in the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Winds and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale Warning, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N15W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 04N30W to 03N41W. Isolated showers are along the ITCZ but no significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A fairly weak pressure gradient exists across the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in moderate E to SE winds. Winds occasionally reach fresh speeds in the northern Gulf. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft. Recent buoy observations show seas are reaching 5 ft in the NW Gulf. No significant convection is noted in the Gulf at this time. For the forecast, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed and early Wed night. This front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico near 25N98W by Wed afternoon, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to NE Mexico near 25.5N98W by Wed night, then stall and begin to dissipate. Strong high pressure behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night allowing for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds across most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the southwestern Caribbean, off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressure over northern South America is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are across most of the Caribbean range 4 to 7 ft. Seas up to 4 ft are noted within the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are in the northwestern Caribbean, except for locally fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands. Seas in the areas described are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure N of the area will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Beginning on Thu evening, fresh to strong northeast winds will develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and continue south of Hispaniola. These winds will spread a good distance to the southwest over the western and central Caribbean areas through Sat night as strengthening high pressure shifts offshore the mid- Atlantic region. Long-period north swell propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly subside through Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... West of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 26N74W, then becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas and to the South Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are behind the boundary. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft, with 3 ft seas near the Bahamas and Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers are seen within about 180 nm east of the front north of 27N and E of 59W. Elsewhere, 6 to 8 ft seas continue to reach the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 30N42W to 24N45W and to 15N46W. A well-defined upper low is shown in water vapor imagery near the trough, supporting scattered moderate convection from 16N to 23N between 42W and 49W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic remains under the dominance of an expansive subtropical ridge north of the area. Moderate trades are noted north of 20N and east of 45W near the ridge axis, where seas continue to be 10 to 13 ft. Moderate to fresh trades extend south of 20N, and south of 27N between the west coast of Africa and 40W. Seas of 10 to 15 ft are noted between 30W and 40W north of 20N, while seas of 9 to 14 ft are between 40W to 55W. For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will reach from 31N53W to 26N63W to the central Bahamas by Wed morning, then stall and begin to dissipate. A second and stronger cold front will move off NE Florida by Wed night, reach from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high pressure in the wake of the front moves eastward. On Thu, expected increasing winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of 65W, including the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate across the waters W of 55W Fri through Sat, with seas building to 14-16 ft E of the Bahamas. Long-period NE swell will impact the waters between the SE Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas on Sat and Sat night leading to potentially hazardous marine conditions. $$ AReinhart