000
AXNT20 KNHC 291037
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf 
early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds. 
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed 
and early Wed night. A Gale Warning is in effect for Wed 
afternoon and evening for the NW Gulf offshore waters, where
frequent gusts to 35 kt are anticipated. As a result, seas will 
build to 8-10 ft in the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the 
front. Winds and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this 
Gale Warning, please read the latest Offshore Zones Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau 
near 12N16W to 05N22W, where overnight scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
03N30W to 03N40W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 43W-48W, and within 60 nm 
north of the ITCZ between 39W-43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough over the eastern Gulf extends from near 29N85W 
to 25N89W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the
trough. The typical diurnal Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved
offshore into the eastern Bay of Campeche along a position from 
22N90W to 19N93W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 
along this trough. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under a
weak pressure gradient and fairly tranquil weather conditions. 
Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds prevail across the 
basin, occasionally reaching fresh speeds off the northwest 
Yucatan Peninsula and in the and NW Gulf. Seas of 1-3 ft across 
the Gulf per latest and current buoy data.

For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will shift 
eastward through late tonight as a strong cold front approaches 
eastern Texas. This cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed
followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds. 
Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed 
and early Wed night. This front will reach from northern Florida 
to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central Florida to 
near Veracruz, Mexico early Thu. The front will reach the 
southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida late Thu and become 
stationary through late Fri while it weakens. Strong high pressure
behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night allowing 
for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds 
across most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
precede the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the
southwestern Caribbean, more concentrated near and along the 
coast of Panama. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail 
elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 
the Caribbean and lower pressures across northern South America 
is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and 
eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage as noted in 
recent partial ASCAT data passes. Seas in these waters are 4-7 
ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are in the northwestern 
Caribbean, except for mainly fresh east winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands. Seas in the waters 
described are 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate 
to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea 
through Thu afternoon. Winds will pulse to strong speeds at 
tonight and Wed night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward 
Passage. Beginning on Thu evening, fresh to strong northeast winds
will develop in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage and 
continue south of Hispaniola. These winds will spread a good 
distance to the southwest over the western and central Caribbean 
areas through Sat night as strengthening high pressure shifts 
offshore the mid-Atlantic region. Long-period north swell 
propagating through the Tropical N Atlantic waters will slowly 
subside through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N68W to 28N72W, then becomes a
stationary front to the central Bahamas and to the Straits 
of Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms moving 
east are seen within about 180 nm east of the front north of
29N. This activity is being aided by an upper-level impulse 
that is riding eastward along a strong W to E jet-stream branch
that is identified on water vapor imagery to be near 30N.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted off NW Hispaniola 
and eastern Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft
are in the remainder of the western tropical Atlantic, primarily 
west of 65W. The exception is from 22N to 27N west of 70W,
including the waters surrounding the Bahamas where lower seas of 
2-4 ft are present. Farther east, a frontal trough is analyzed 
from 31N36W to 27N44W and to 22N49W. In the upper-levels, 
a well-defined upper low is shown in water vapor imagery to be 
not too far east of the trough. This low is near 22N46W. Satellite
imagery shows scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 
the low, except within 120 nm in the NE quadrant and 90 nm in the 
SW quadrant. Another trough is analyzed from 29N33W to 25N36W. No 
convection is associated with this feature as it in a very stable 
environment.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic remains under the dominance 
of an expansive subtropical ridge north of the area. Moderate to 
locally fresh trade winds are south of 20N and west of 35W, along
with seas of 7-12 ft. The highest of this range of seas is located 
from 16N to 20N. A large swell area encompasses much of the 
central tropical Atlantic, producing seas of 12-18 ft, especially 
north of 20N and between 30W-55W. Altimeter data from last quite 
impressively reflected these values. Fresh to locally strong N-NE 
winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite wind data east
of 35W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Morocco and 
Western Sahara. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Over the rest of 
the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned weak cold front will reach
from near 30N55W to 24N65W and stationary to the central Bahamas 
and dissipating to the Straits of Florida by Wed morning. The 
frontal boundary will dissipate by early Thu as broad surface 
troughing forms east of the forecast waters. A strong cold front 
will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed night, reach 
from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night,
then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high 
pressure builds across the area in its wake. Fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds and building seas to around 15 ft are 
expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri and Fri night. 
These seas are forecast to build even further Sat and Sat night in
a long-period north to northeast swell, possibly reaching as high
as 20 ft in the far northeast part of the forecast waters on Sat 
night. The long-period swell will impact the waters between the 
southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas on Sat and 
Sat night leading to potentially hazardous marine conditions. 

$$
Aguirre