672 AXNT20 KNHC 290423 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Nov 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0405 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force N-NE winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed and early Wed night. A Gale Warning has been issued for Wed afternoon and evening offshore the Texas coast, where frequent gusts to 35 kt are anticipated. As a result, seas will build to 8 to 10 ft in the NW Gulf, and continue into Thu. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. Winds and seas will diminish late Thu. For details on this Gale Warning, please read the latest Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N23W to 04N37W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N and between 40W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from southern Florida to 24N86W and no significant convection is seen near this boundary. A few showers have made it into the eastern Bay of Campeche from western Yucatan, but this activity is expected to dissipate in the next couple of hours. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico is under a weak pressure gradient and fairly tranquil weather conditions. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the basin, occasionally reaching fresh speeds off NW Yucatan and NW Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure over the area will shift eastward through late Tue night as a strong cold front approaches eastern Texas. This cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Wed, followed by strong to near gale force north to northeast winds. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected in the NW Gulf on Wed and early Wed night. This front will reach from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed night, and from central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico early Thu. The front will reach the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida late Thu and become stationary through late Fri while it weakens. Strong high pressure behind the front will shift eastward through Fri night allowing for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds across most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers dot the SW Caribbean Sea, especially near the coast of Panama. Generally tranquil weather conditions prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressures across northern South America result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes are prevalent in the NW Caribbean, except for locally fresh in the Gulf of Honduras and near the adjacent Bay Islands. Seas in the waters described are 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will remain north of the area through most of the week maintaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage Tue through Thu, then become rather persistent through Sat night, including also in the lee of Cuba as high pressure strengthens over the mid-Atlantic states. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida. No deep convection is associated with this feature. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are noted off NW Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found in the remainder of the western tropical Atlantic, primarily west of 65W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N36W to 29N39W, becoming a dissipating stationary front to 24N50W. Also there is no significant convection near this boundary. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are present south of 20N and west of 35W, along with seas of 7-12 ft. A large swell area encompasses much of the central tropical Atlantic, producing seas of 12-20 ft, especially north of 20N and between 30W and 60W. Fresh to locally strong N-NE winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite wind data east of 35W, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a weak cold front extending from 31N70W to south Florida will reach from 31N64W to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida by Tue morning, and from near 30N55W to 24N65W and stationary to the central Bahamas and dissipating to the Straits of Florida by Wed morning. The frontal boundary will dissipate by early Thu as broad surface troughing forms east of the forecast waters. A strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed night, reach from near 31N67W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high pressure builds across the area in its wake. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas to around 15 ft are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri and Fri night. $$ DELGADO