061 AXNT20 KNHC 281740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, to 06N20W and 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W, to 02N34W, and 02N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 27W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 27W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through Florida's Atlantic Ocean coastal waters that are near 27N80W, through Lake Okeechobee, to 24N85W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico that is near 18N92W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the north of the cold front from 90W eastward. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to the north of the rest of the cold front. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the time period that ended at 28/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, is: 2.43 in Merida in Mexico A stationary front passes through SE Louisiana, to the coast of Texas that is near 27N97W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N to 28N between 87W and 93W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is about 60 nm to the east of the coast of Mexico near 23.5N 96.5W. A surface trough curves through the low pressure center and 96W/98W from 21N to 25N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 26N southward from 94W westward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 28N87W. The current weak pressure gradient allows for light to locally moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet. A weak cold front extends from central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The front will gradually dissipate as it moves across the far southeastern Gulf this afternoon. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will prevail through Wed, at which time a cold front will move into the NW Gulf. This front will reach from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico by Wed evening, and from central Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front. The high pressure will shift eastward through Fri night allowing for winds to become easterly and moderate to fresh in speeds across most of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 nm shows that the area of Trinidad and NE Venezuela is on the southern side of the trough that passes from the central Atlantic Ocean toward the SE Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that broad and gentle cyclonic wind flow is in the same area of the SE Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 09N to 13N between 60W and 65W, in the waters and the inland areas of Trinidad and Venezuela. Some 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 28/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES/MIATPTPAN, are: 1.88 in Trinidad, and 0.12 in Curacao. Nearly four inches of rain have been reported in Trinidad during the last three days. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery practically everywhere from 86W eastward. Some high level moisture is pushing its way northward, from 15N southward between 67W and 78W. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 75W in northern Colombia, and beyond Panama/Costa Rica, into the tropical NE Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N southward from 75W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow, with a NE-to-SW oriented trough, covers the SW corner of the area, from 15N southward from 75W westward. The surface pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high pressure center that is near 31N57W, and comparatively lower pressures that are in northern South America, support fresh to locally strong trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, including in the entrance of the Windward Passage. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are elsewhere. High pressure will remain north of the area through most of the week maintaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage Tue through Thu, then become rather persistent through Fri night, including in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over just about the entire basin through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N39W to 27N44W to 24N50W. A surface trough continues from 24N50W to 23N65W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the north of the front, and within 180 nm to the south of the front, from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate is possible within 180 nm on either side of the surface trough. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 31N57W. A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 39N15W. A surface ridge passes through 31N29W to 26N36W. Moderate to locally strong S-SW winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 29N northward from 68W westward. Fresh to strong southwest winds are to the east and to the southeast of the front from 29N northward. Fresh west to northwest winds are to the west of the front to 53W, from 29N northward. The sea heights from 8 feet to 22 feet. The comparatively highest sea heights are to the north of the frontal boundary near 30N53W. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a NE-to-SW oriented trough that passes through the central Atlantic Ocean toward the SE Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with a trough is from 07N to 20N between 40W and 52W. A surface trough is along 25N40W, to 15N45W, to 06N46W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 01N to 07N between 40W and 52W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward between 40W and 52W. A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to central Florida. The front will reach from near 31N70W to SE Florida this evening, and from 31N64W to the Straits of Florida by Tue morning. A strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed night, reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high pressure builds across the area in its wake. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and building seas to around 15 ft are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas Fri and Fri night. $$ mt/gr