000
AXNT20 KNHC 280407
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0405 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
06N23W. The ITCZ stretches from the 06N23W to 03N37W to 02N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N and east
of 25W. Isolated moderate convection is evident from 04N to 08N 
and between 37W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high pressure system, centered just south of the mouth 
of the Mississippi River, dominates most of the Gulf of Mexico. As
of 0300 UTC, a cold front extends from near Sarasota, Florida, to
26N84W, where it transitions into a dissipating stationary front 
to 23N92W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen 
ahead of the frontal boundary in the SE Gulf, especially near the 
Florida coast. Elsewhere, diurnal convection over the western 
Yucatan peninsula is emigrating westward over the eastern Bay of 
Campeche waters. These showers will quickly lose strength over the
next few hours. The weak pressure gradient allows for light to 
locally moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft across the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will gradually 
dissipate as it moves across the rest of the eastern Gulf through 
Mon afternoon. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the 
front will prevail through Wed, at which time a cold front will 
move into the NW Gulf. Winds will increase to strong speeds behind
the front, and spread across the western Gulf and into the 
southwestern Gulf and northern Gulf waters Wed through Thu. 
Possible occasional gusts to gale force may occur in the western 
Gulf Wed and Wed night. The high pressure will shift eastward 
through Fri night allowing for winds to become easterly and 
moderate to fresh in speeds across most of the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Except for a few showers in the SW Caribbean, near the coasts of
Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua, fairly tranquil weather
conditions prevail across the basin. A 1022 mb high pressure
system positioned SE of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern
South America support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds
in the central and eastern Caribbean, including the entrance of
the Windward Passage. The strongest winds occurring offshore NW 
Colombia. Seas in the waters described are 4-7 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist north of the area
through most of the upcoming week maintaining moderate to fresh 
easterly breezes across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. 
Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night south of Hispaniola and 
in the Windward Passage Tue through Thu, then become rather 
persistent through Fri night, including lee of Cuba. Moderate to 
fresh trade winds are expected over just about the entire basin 
through the period. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has reached the waters off NE Florida, extending from
31N80W to near Flagler Beach, Florida. A couple of showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the frontal boundary on
satellite imagery. Moderate to locally strong S-SW winds are 
present north of 29N and west of 68W. Seas in these waters are 5-7
ft. Meanwhile, another cold front extends from 31N43W to 25N52W, 
where it becomes a stationary front to 24N72W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring within 200 nm ahead of the frontal 
boundary, mainly north of 24N. Fresh to strong W-SW winds are 
present north of 29N and between 35W and 47W. Seas in these waters
are 8-24 ft, with the highest seas occurring behind the frontal 
boundary, near 31N50W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1031 mb
subtropical ridge east of the Azores, maintaining fairly tranquil
weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the strong high
pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains moderate
to fresh easterly winds south of 20N and between the Lesser
Antilles and 35W. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft. A tighter
pressure gradient is found off the coasts of Morocco and Western
Sahara, supporting fresh to strong NE winds, primarily north of 
20N and east of 25W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong southwest winds north N of 30N 
and east of the front off Florida to 75W will diminish by early 
Mon evening as the front reaches from near 31N72W to 27N75W. The 
front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida early Tue, 
then become stationary and weaken near 25N on Wed. A strong cold 
front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Wed night, 
reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida Thu 
night, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri as strong high 
builds across the area in its wake. Fresh to strong northeast to 
east winds and building seas are expected northeast of the Bahamas
Fri and Fri night. 

$$
DELGADO