547 AXNT20 KNHC 260553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure area off the Carolina coast will rapidly intensify as it moves to the north of Bermuda later this morning. A trailing cold front will sweep rapidly eastward along with the low pressure. For waters south of 31N later this morning, this pattern will support strong to gale force winds north of 27N east of the front, and north of 28N west of front. Wave heights will build to 8 to 13 ft north of 28N. The gale force winds will reach as far as 50W north of 30N through early evening, then winds will diminish below gale force as supporting the low pressure shifts farther north of the area. Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force winds along with rough seas will expand eastward with the front across the area north of 26N through this evening. Winds will diminish through tonight, but large NW swell will persist across the waters north of 22N and east of 70W through late Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, then continues to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 04N35W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 32W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front reaches from near Saint Marks, Florida across the northern Gulf to a nearly stationary 1012 mb low pressure area centered off South Texas near 27N96W. A cold front extends from the low pressure to near Poza Rica, Mexico. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active within 90 nm of the low pressure area. Nearby platforms indicate fresh NE to E winds are evident over the far northwest Gulf, north of the front, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Fresh NW to N winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are likely off the coast of Tamaulipas west of the cold front. Generally light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the portion of the front east of the low will lift north overnight. Another cold front will move into the western Gulf Saturday, merging with the residual boundary south of the low. This front will weaken as it moves through the northeast Gulf Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean is tight enough to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Trade wind convergence is supporting a small area of showers and thunderstorms between Honduras and Jamaica. Light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the current pattern will sustain moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Sun night through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section on the Gale Warning issued for the central Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from 31N37W to 25N55W, then is stationary to 20N65W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are evident within 90 nm east of the front. Combined seas to 8 ft are evident north of the front, mainly in NW swell. Moderate to fresh trade winds and wave heights of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell extend across the tropical Atlantic south of 20N. Moderate NE winds are noted off the northwest coast of Africa, with 6 to 8 ft seas in NW swell. Mostly light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas in NW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits of Florida Tue night before starting to slowly weaken. $$ Christensen