000 AXNT20 KNHC 252330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late tonight, then move quickly ESE. Strong to gale force winds will develop north of 27N E of the front on Sat, and north of 28N W of front. Seas of 10-13 ft are expected in the wake of the front by Sat afternoon, and will further build to 12-15 ft by Sun morning. This cold front will reach from 31N53W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 23N by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish across the region late Sat through Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N14W, then continues to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 06N35W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 33W and 44W. Similar convective activity is observed from 09N to 12N between 50W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Alabama to a 1013 mb low pressure along the coast near Brownsville, Texas to S of Tuxpan, Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf near the low center and front. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong N to NE winds in the wake of the front over the NW Gulf while fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are noted between the front and the coast of Mexico. Seas are 6-7 ft near the low center based on buoys observations, with seas of 4-6 ft elsewehre behind the front. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the remainder of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, the portion of the aforementioned front east of the low will lift north tonight. Another cold front will move into the western Gulf Saturday, merging with the residual boundary south of the low. This front will weaken as it moves through the northeast Gulf Sun. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and prevail through Wed. Of note, a record high temperature of 88 degrees was observed at Miami International Airport today, November 25, 2022. This breaks the old record of 86 degrees set on this date in 1947. Records at Miami date back to 1895. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate to fresh NE-E winds across the central Caribbean, and in the Windward Passage. gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the east and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and 2-4 ft elsewhwere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, embedded in the trade wind flow, are observed mainly over the SW Caribbean. This activity is spreading into parts of Nicaragua and NE Honduras. Some convective activity is also noted over Jamaica. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Atlantic and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Sun night through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, see the Special Features section on the Gale Warning issued for the central Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from 31N38W to 25N50W to 26N66W. Some shower activity is noted along and behind the front E of 50W while mainly broken low clouds are along the frontal boundary W of 50W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are seen north of the front. Based on scatterometer data, an area of fresh to strong SW winds is noted ahead of the front, roughly N of 27N and E of the front to about 42W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft north of the front and 5-7 ft south of the front. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by a ridge extending SW from the Madeira Islands. North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds dominate with 8-10 ft seas composed primarily of northerly swell. South of 20N, winds increase to moderate to fresh from the east with 7 to 9 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, please see first the Special Features section. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Mon night, then from 31N59W to the Straits of Florida Tue night before starting to slowly weaken. $$ GR