000 AXNT20 KNHC 251017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlc Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late today. Strong to gale force SW winds will develop north of 27N and east of the front on Sat, while strong to just below gale force NW winds develop N of 28N and west of the front. This cold front will reach from 31N53W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 23N. Gale force winds will diminish by Sat night, and winds and seas will improve across the region into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07.5N12.5W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 04.5N36W to 04N51.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04.5N to 08.5N between 19W and 32W, from 02.5N to 08.5N, between 32W and 48W, and from 06N to 13N between 48W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from 1014 mb low pressure over southeast Louisiana to 1012 mb low pressure along the coast at Brownsville, Texas. Scattered moderate to strong convection has moved out ahead of the front, and extends in a narrow 60 nm wide line from 26N93.5W to near 29N91W. A larger cluster of similar convection is being supported by a middle level trough, and covers the waters from 26.5N to 29N between 84W and 87W. Patchy dense fog is occurring across the south Texas coastal waters west of the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted north of the front with gentle to moderate southerly winds southeast of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the eastern Gulf and 3-6 ft in the western Gulf, except 6 to 7 ft west of the front. For the forecast, the front will meander today and then lift north tonight, while new low pressure moves into the Texas coastal plains. The low pressure will move into the lower Mississippi Valley through late Sat, while an attendant cold front moves into the western Gulf. The front will weaken quickly as it moves through the northeast Gulf Sun. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf behind the dissipating front through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the Caribbean waters south of 16.5N between 67W and 85W. The gradient between high pressure across the northwest Atlantic and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate easterly winds across most of the Caribbean with seas 4-7 ft. In the NW basin, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the gradient will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Fresh winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Sun night through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section on the gale warning issued for the central Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from 31N43.5W to 27N68W, where it has become diffuse to the NW Bahamas. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of the front, N of 28N and E of 50W. Moderate to fresh N-E winds are north of the front with gentle winds south of the front and west of 55W. Strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front N of 30N and E of 50W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft north of the front and 5-7 ft south of the front. The central and eastern Atlantic are dominated by a ridge extending SW from the Madeira Islands. North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds dominate with 8-10 ft seas composed primarily of northerly swell. South of 20N, winds increase to moderate to fresh from the east with 7 to 9 ft seas. For the forecast, another cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late today, then move quickly ESE. Strong to gale force winds will develop north of 27N E of the front on Sat, and north of 28N W of front. This cold front will reach from 31N53W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 23N by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish across the region late Sat through Sun. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night. $$ Stripling