000
AXNT20 KNHC 250404
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0605 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South 
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the 
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite 
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlc Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the waters off 
northeast Florida late Fri. Strong to gale force winds along 
with rough seas will develop north of 27N near the front Sat. 
This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas 
by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N. Gale force winds 
will diminish by Sat night, and winds and seas will improve 
across the region through into Sun. Please read the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more 
details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 
04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 
08N, between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the northern 
Gulf coast along a stationary front that extends from the 
Florida Big Bend to the southeast Texas coast. Moderate easterly 
winds are noted north of the front with gentle to moderate 
southerly winds south of the front. Seas are 2-4 ft across the 
eastern Gulf and 3-6 ft in the western Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift 
eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas. A weak 
cold front associated with the low pressure has stalled along 
29N from SE Texas to Florida tonight, and will lift north Fri 
night while the low pressure moves into the Texas coastal 
plains. The low pressure will move into the lower Mississippi 
Valley through Sat, while an attendant cold front moves into the 
western Gulf. The front will weaken as it moves through the 
southeast Gulf by late Sun, while high pressure builds over the 
northern Gulf behind the front through Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the Gulf of 
Honduras and across the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters. The 
gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower 
pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate easterly 
winds across most of the Caribbean with seas 3-6 ft. In the NW 
basin, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 2-4 ft. 

For the forecast, the gradient will support moderate to fresh 
trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola 
through Sun night, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. 
Fresh winds are expected across the SE Caribbean Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section on the gale warning issued for 
the central Atlantic waters. 

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 28N70W where it becomes 
stationary and continues to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. 
Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of the 
front, N of 28N and E of 50W. Moderate to fresh N-E winds are 
north of the front with gentle winds south of the front and west 
of 55W. Strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front N of 30N 
and E of 50W. Seas are generally 7-10 ft north of the front and 
5-7 ft south of the front. The central and eastern Atlantic are 
dominated by a ridge extending SW from the Madeira Islands. 
North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds dominate with 8-10 ft 
seas composed primarily of northerly swell. South of 20N, winds 
increase to moderate to fresh from the east with 7 to 9 ft seas. 

For the forecast, the cold front will become mostly stationary 
tonight, then weaken Fri while it lifts northward. Another cold 
front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. 
Strong to gale force winds will develop north of 27N near the 
front Sat. This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the 
northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N. 
Winds and seas will diminish across the region through into Sun. 
Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida late Sun 
ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun 
night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits 
by Mon night. 

$$ 
Flynn