000 AXNT20 KNHC 242329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Nov 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlc Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. Strong to gale force winds along with rough seas will develop north of 27N near the front Sat. This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N. Gale force winds will diminish by Sat night, and winds and seas will improve across the region through into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 04N36W to 08N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the northern Gulf coast along a stationary front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to the southeast Texas coast. Moderate winds are noted north of the front with gentle to moderate winds south of the front. Seas are 2-3 ft across the eastern Gulf and 3-4 ft in the western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure over the area will shift eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas. A weak cold front associated with the low pressure is expected to move into the northwest Gulf late tonight into early Fri, stall, then lift north Fri night while the low pressure moves into the Texas coastal plains. The low pressure will move into the lower Mississippi Valley through Sat, while an attendant cold front moves into the western Gulf. The front will weaken as it moves through the southeast Gulf by late Sun, while high pressure builds over the northern Gulf behind the front through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough curves from northern Belize to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along this boundary, particularly in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough. Isolated thunderstorms are noted near Cuba and the Dominican Republic, as well as showers across the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted across most of the Caribbean with seas 2-4 ft. In the NW basin, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 2-3 ft. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola through early next week, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section on the gale warning issued for the central Atlantic waters. A cold front extends from 31N51W to 28N70W where it becomes stationary to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of the front, N of 28N and E of 56W. Moderate to fresh winds are north of the front with light to gentle winds south of the front. Strong to near gale- force SW winds are noted ahead of the front N of 30N and W of 51W. High pres extends across the rest of the area. Moderate to fresh winds are noted S of 22N from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles with seas 6-9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds with seas 6-10 ft are noted N of 22N. For the forecast, the front will become mostly stationary tonight, then weaken Fri while it lifts northward. Another cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. Strong to gale force winds along with rough seas will develop north of 27N near the front Sat. This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N. Winds and seas will diminish across the region through into Sun. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida late Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night. $$ AReinhart