000 AXNT20 KNHC 241753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N15W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 06N25W 04N36W 08N45W to 08N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 65W eastward from 20N southward. The GFS model for 700 mb shows a NE- to-SW oriented inverted trough and cyclonic wind flow from 10N southward between 50W and 60W, and the same type of pattern from 10N to 20N between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, are from 14N southward between 50W and 65W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the Deep South of Texas, and to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from 26N to 28N between 89W and 93W. Moderate to fresh wind speeds are in the rest of the north central Gulf waters. Gentle wind speeds are in the rest of the area. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from 85W westward, and they range from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line that runs from the coast of the Upper Texas Gulf coast to NW Cuba. High pressure over the area will shift eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas. A weak cold front associated with the low pressure is expected to move into the northwest Gulf late tonight into early Fri, stall, then lift north Fri night while the low pressure moves into the Texas coastal plains. The low pressure will move into the lower Mississippi Valley through Sat, while an attendant cold front moves into the western Gulf. The front will weaken as it moves through the southeast Gulf by late Sun, while high pressure builds over the northern Gulf behind the front through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface troughs curves from the western parts of the Yucatan Channel, to just to the east of eastern Honduras, to 11N82W in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong are 15N northward from 81W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, in patches of low level clouds in the tradewind flow. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 6 feet from Jamaica southward from 80W eastward. The sea heights are 3 feet or less elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area, and from Jamaica southward. Light breezes are in the NW Caribbean Sea, and from 10N southward to the coast of Panama. High pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the southwest Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean south of Hispaniola through early next week, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N55W to 28N70W. The front is stationary from 28N70W to 28N80W, and then curving northward beyond 31N80W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are from the front northward from 70W westward. Strong SW winds, and sea heights that are reaching 7 feet, are from 28N northward between 48W and 54W Gentle to moderate winds and moderate wave heights are elsewhere from 22N northward from 60W westward. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet in mixed E and NW swell, are from 22N southward. Gentle to moderate breezes, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 10 feet in NW swell, are from 22N northward from 60W eastward. A cold front extends from 31N53W TO 28N68W, then becomes stationary to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The front will become mostly stationary along 26N tonight, then weaken Fri while it lifts northward. Another cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri. Strong to near- gale force winds along with rough seas will develop north of 27N near the front through Sat. This cold front will reach from 31N55W to the northern Bahamas by late Sat, then stall and weaken along 22N. Winds and seas will diminish across the region through into Sun. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida late Sun ahead of a reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon night. $$ MT/AL