000
AXNT20 KNHC 240401
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 
08N15W. The ITCZ continues from 08N15W to 05N52W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed from the equator to 10N, between 
15W and 35W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough remains over the western Gulf and runs from the 
eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N93W to near Corpus Christi, 
Texas. In the north central basin east of the trough, moderate 
easterly winds dominate with 4 to 6 ft seas. A smaller fetch 
area is only building 2 to 3 ft seas in the eastern Gulf. West 
of the trough, winds shift to fresh Northwesterlies with 6 to 8 
ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure over the area will gradually 
shift eastward through Fri as low pressure develops over Texas. 
A weak cold front associated to the low pressure is expected to 
move into the northwest Gulf late Thu night into early Fri, 
stall, then lift north Fri night ahead of the low pressure 
moving into the Texas coastal plains. The low pressure will move 
into the lower Mississippi Valley through Sat, while an 
attendant cold front moves into the western Gulf. The front will 
weaken as it moves through the southeast Gulf by late Sun, while 
high pressure builds over the northern Gulf behind the front 
through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low over the far SE Caribbean continues to 
generate scattered showers east of 65W. A surface trough in the 
NW Caribbean is triggering scattered moderate convection from 
15N to 18N, between 80W and 84W. Moderate to fresh trades and 
seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the east and central Caribbean. 
Gentle to moderate winds are over the western Caribbean with 
seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the area will 
slacken tonight allowing for winds and seas to diminish across 
the basin, except for occasionally fresh east winds south of 
Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage. A weak cold front 
may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend before dissipating 
late Sun or Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N63W to 
28N73W where it becomes stationary and continues to 31N80W. 
North of these boundaries, isolated moderate convection is 
embedded in widespread cloudiness. Winds are moderate to fresh 
from the east with 5 to 7 ft seas. South of the front to about 
22N, winds are gentle with 4 to 6 ft seas. The remainder of the 
subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the pressure gradient 
between a 1023 mb high centered near 30N36W and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ. While the high-pressure center is 
keeping winds gentle north of 25N, 9 to 12 ft NW swell is 
propagating into the region between 30W and 50W, originating 
from storm force winds in the mid-latitudes. Winds gradually 
increase southward, becoming moderate to fresh easterlies 
between 05N and 25N. Seas are generally 6 to 9 ft in this area. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift east of 
the area through Thu. Expect strong winds and occasionally rough 
seas overnight into Thu near the front north of 30N and east of 
65W. Another front will move into the waters off northeast 
Florida late Fri. Expect strong winds and rough seas north of 
27N near the front through Sat as it reaches from Bermuda to the 
northern Bahamas by early Sat, and from 31N55W to the Florida 
Straits by late Sat. Winds and seas will diminish across the 
region through into Sun as high pressure builds behind the front 
between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Southerly winds will 
increase off northeast Florida late Sun ahead of a weak 
reinforcing front expected to move off the coast Sun night, and 
reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon. 

$$ 
Flynn