000 AXNT20 KNHC 230402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N, between 34W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N, between 07W and 34W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends from South Florida to near 23N88W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of the boundary embedded in expansive cloudiness. Moderate to fresh NE winds are north of the front. A surface trough extends across the SW Gulf from a 1014 mb low pressure center near 21N92W to near Brownsville, TX. Fresh to strong NW winds persist W of this trough with seas of 8 to 10 ft. For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate overnight. Strong winds and rough seas will persist across the central and southwest Gulf, but will diminish Wed. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf Thu night. Winds may reach minimal gale force behind the front off the coast of Mexico west of 95W Fri into Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the weakening front reaches the southeast Gulf and broad high pressure builds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low spinning over the SE Caribbean is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This convective activity extends into the Atlantic waters E of the Windward Islands to about 51W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the east and central Caribbean, and also across the Windward Passage where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds across the central and northeast Caribbean into Wed, as well as through the Windward Passage. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola and through the Windward Passage. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N46W to south Florida. Broken and overcast skies with embedded showers are observed north of the boundary. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted north of the front with seas of 6 to 9 ft. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N26W. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge extending west of the high-pressure center and lower pressure in the deep tropics is supporting moderate to fresh E-NE winds across the majority of the central and eastern Atlantic south of 25N. Seas are 6-10 ft in within these waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N47W to 28N70W to near Jupiter, Florida. The front will weaken and drift north to along 31N tonight before moving eastward again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead, another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat. A third front may move off the northeast Florida coast Sun. $$ Flynn