000 AXNT20 KNHC 222314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Nov 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W then continues to 08N14W. The ITCZ extends from 08N14W to 06N30W to 06N52W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 35W and 40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 04N to 08N between 23W and 45W. Similar convection is from 04N to 06N between 12W and 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends from South Florida to near 22N90W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front over the eastern Gulf while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are S of the front, including the Yucatan Channel. A weak 1017 mb low pressure is analyzed near 21N93W with a trough extending NW to near to the coast of Texas near 28N97W. Fresh to strong NW winds persist W of the trough axis with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A well defined swirl of low clouds is observed in satellite imagery associated with the low center. Multilayer clouds dominate most of the Gulf waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the central Gulf, mainly from 22N to 26N between 85W and 94W. Similar convective activity is seen over the northern Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, the above mentioned front will dissipate overnight. Strong winds and rough seas will persist across the central and southwest Gulf, but will diminish on Wed. Looking ahead, strong NW winds and building seas will follow another front expected to move into the northwest Gulf Thu night. Winds may reach minimal gale force behind the front off the coast of Mexico west of 95W Fri. Winds and seas will diminish through Sun as the weakening front reaches the southeast Gulf and broad high pressure builds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low spinning over the SE Caribbean, including the Windward Islands and NE Venezuela is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This convective activity extends into the Atlantic waters E of the Windward Islands to about 55W. An area of showers and thunderstorms is near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convection. Elsewhere across the basin, patches of low level moisture with embedded showers are noted. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted over the east and central Caribbean, and also across the Windward Passage where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the region will continue to support fresh to occasionally strong trade winds across the central and northeast Caribbean into Wed. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin by Thu, except for occasionally fresh E winds persisting south of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N47W to 28N70W to south Florida. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, is just behind the front. Mainly fresh E winds are noted in the wake of the front with seas of 8 to 11 ft, highest N of 30N between 50W and 55W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure centered W of the Madeira Islands near 32N26W. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly winds across most of the central and eastern Atlantic south of 25N. Seas are 7-10 ft within these waters based on several altimeter passes. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will weaken and drift north to along 31N through tonight before moving eastward again across the waters north of 28N through Thu. Looking ahead, a another front will move south into the waters north of 28N late Fri, and then shift east of the area through Sat. A third, weaker front may move off the northeast Florida coast late Sun. $$ GR